Conversation with Pershing Square Capital Management Founder & CEO Bill Ackman | GIS Mexico City '26

Macroeconomic Landscape and AI Investment Thesis

• Global debt exceeds $365 trillion, creating a backdrop of cautious optimism in some markets and trepidation in others.
• The period from 2026 through 2028 and beyond is defined by the democratization of intelligence, with the cost of intelligence approaching an asymptote toward superintelligence.
• Artificial Intelligence is identified as the primary driver for future global productivity, entrepreneurship, and economic growth.
• The United States and Mexico are positioned as major beneficiaries of the AI revolution, driven by required infrastructure spending and energy demand.
• Potential geopolitical risks are countered by the prospect of a "peace dividend" if conflicts in the Middle East and Russia are resolved.
• The speaker views democratic socialism as a structural threat to long-term prosperity, citing France's 59% GDP spending on social services alongside civil unrest.

Capital Allocation and Market Sustainability

• Hyperscalers are projected to spend between $600 billion and $750 billion on AI infrastructure this year, predominantly funded through borrowed capital.
• While hyperscalers possess sufficient creditworthiness to sustain this borrowing, highly leveraged "neocloud" companies face significant risk from rising capital costs.
• Competition between sovereign entities and private companies like SpaceX for debt capital is expected to keep interest rates persistently high.
• Despite elevated rates (5–6%), investment in AI compute remains viable because projected returns on intelligence vastly exceed the cost of capital.
• Inflationary pressures may be mitigated by lower energy prices contingent on resolving geopolitical conflicts involving Iran and Russia.

Corporate Strategy and Valuation Logic

• The speaker rejects the comparison to the 1999 internet bubble, noting that current AI companies like Anthropic possess viable business models and are profitable, unlike past entities like Pets.com.
• Microsoft is described as functioning as a "dashboard" for AI products, serving as a primary revenue source for companies like Anthropic, which derives roughly 50% of revenue from hyperscalers.
• Uber is characterized as a company that will leverage AI to optimize driver routing, with earnings expected to grow 35% annually for the next year and 25% annually for the subsequent five years.
• Uber's stock trades at 16 times earnings due to market fear regarding Tesla's autonomous vehicle dominance, a risk the speaker dismisses as inaccurate, predicting a fragmented market of 10+ players focusing on cost efficiency.
• Concentrated investment strategies allow for high-conviction bets but carry the risk of public, high-profile losses, exemplified by the speaker's involvement in the "Betting on Zero" film regarding the subprime mortgage crisis.

Philanthropy and Medical Innovation

• The speaker's daughter, Lucy, suffered a severe brain hemorrhage that was successfully treated through aggressive intervention, resulting in full cognitive recovery with physical deficits.
• The Ackman-Oxman Institute has been established with an initial commitment of $400 million, with total planned investment nearing $800 million.
• The Institute aims to address systemic healthcare failures by focusing on the under-reimbursed but critical sector of brain rehabilitation and recovery technology.
• A 3.4-acre site in New York City is being acquired for a 2.5 million square foot headquarters to serve as a hub for biotech, device development, and longevity research.
• The Institute plans to fund approximately $100 million in Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) and related device development, a sector previously under-invested in outside of Neuralink.
• Operational models will import high-performance metrics from elite sectors, including Formula One and the military, to improve patient recovery response times.

Personal Philosophy and Origins

• The speaker's decision-making philosophy was cemented at age 16 when he ignored his father's instruction regarding a car's flat tire on a slope, resulting in the vehicle falling off the jack.
• This incident taught the speaker to listen to all advice but ultimately rely on independent judgment and decision-making.
• The speaker cites his father as the most influential figure in his life, crediting him with teaching lessons through both direct instruction and personal mistakes.