Interview, Fireside Chat
Conversation with US Ambassador to the Republic of Türkiye Tom Barrack | Middle East & Africa Summit
- Stephen Barak asserts a "golden age" for the Middle East driven by Trump's event-driven diplomacy, though he cautions that full regional unity is unlikely within a two-year timeframe.
- Predictions include the eventual normalization of Turkey-Israel relations under a new or hybrid accord name, with the expectation that current high-level rhetoric between their leaders will cease.
- Regarding Turkish participation in the International Stabilization Force, Barak views it as a strategic move to aid Hamas disarmament but notes that existing trust deficits make such a move uncertain.
- F-35 procurement for Turkey faces a timeline involving a 10-year Congressional approval process plus eight years for delivery, leading to a prediction that the F-45 model will replace the F-35 before transfer occurs.
- Barak contrasts the U.S. two-year foreign policy cycle with the long-term strategic perspectives of China (50 years) and Russia (100 years), characterizing the former as disadvantageous.
- Resolution of S-400 operability and possession issues is anticipated within the next four to six months, coinciding with Turkey's reduced reliance on Russian oil.
- U.S. LNG is forecast to become increasingly critical to Turkey, with contracts currently in place to supply 45–50% of needs through 2030.
- Syrian oil production is projected to rise from the current 65,000 barrels per day to 500,000 barrels per day once the Northeast buffer area becomes operational.
- Barak hopes for the repeal of the Caesar Act by Congress, arguing the current Syrian administration differs from the previous regime, while noting the U.S. is monitoring eight specific requirements including chemical weapon disposal and the return of missing persons.
- Significant risk exists for a reversion to war in Lebanon due to political deadlock within its confessional system, a scenario leaders hope to avoid after a 15-year civil war.
- Barak argues that legal constraints prevent Israel from signing a truce directly with Lebanon, necessitating an agreement with Hezbollah, and warns that killing terrorists may generate further insurgency rather than solve the issue.
- There is expressed confidence that Lebanese leadership, including President Joseph Aoun and MP Nabih Berri, is prepared to negotiate a deal with Israel.
- A risk exists of a "roaring line 2.0" catastrophe if current military alignments are not neutralized, emphasizing the need to transform the current opportunity into a sustainable system similar to the UAE model.