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Could digital currencies put banks out of business?
- Core Banking Mechanism:
- The modern economy relies on fractional reserve banking, where commercial banks create 90% of the world's money (digital deposits) by issuing loans rather than lending existing gold or cash.
- This system allows money supply to be elastic, expanding to meet economic demand for new goods and trade.
- Shift in Corporate Lending:
- Banks are increasingly unable to fund the most innovative sectors (e.g., Silicon Valley startups) because intangible assets like software cannot be easily used as collateral compared to traditional machinery.
- Since the 1950s, the share of bank loans in GDP has remained stable while non-bank loans and securities have risen sharply, causing the financing role of banks to recede.
- Rise of Tech Payment Giants:
- Mega-apps like China's Ant Group Alipay (1 billion users, $16 trillion in payments in 2019) are creating digital ecosystems that bypass traditional banking rails, allowing users to pay, invest, and borrow without leaving the app.
- Global tech firms including Facebook and Amazon are developing their own digital currencies and financial services, creating a payment environment that disregards national borders.
- Central bankers express concern that these "super apps" are eroding their ability to oversee monetary policy and maintain financial stability.
- Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Developments:
- In response to the threat of tech giants, central banks are accelerating the development of CBDCs to maintain a direct relationship with consumers and secure control over the monetary system.
- According to the Bank for International Settlements, 80% of central banks are considering issuing CBDCs.
- Forecasts suggest that within three years, one-fifth of the global population will live in countries with central bank digital money.
- Implications of a Potential "World Without Banks":
- Widespread CBDC adoption could render fractional reserve banking obsolete by removing consumer deposits from commercial banks, potentially stifling economic growth, particularly in developing nations dependent on bank lending.
- Risks:
- Systemic Vulnerability: The entire economy could be paralyzed by cyber warfare attacks on central bank wallet servers.
- State Control: Governments could programmatically restrict transactions, such as blocking purchases of specific goods (e.g., foreign media) or freezing spending entirely.
- Potential Benefits: Proponents argue CBDCs could increase financial inclusion and reduce cross-border transaction costs.
- Conclusion:
- While a world without traditional banks is technically feasible, the transition carries significant risks regarding financial stability, consumer privacy, and the expansion of state power.