Lecture, Other
Could Ethiopia’s war in Tigray spark conflict with Sudan?
- Sudan and Ethiopia are currently in a volatile border confrontation over Al-Fashaga, a fertile region claimed by both sides, posing a risk of drawing the entire East African region into a wider conflict.
- The dispute originated from a 1902 British demarcation that assigned Al-Fashaga to Sudan despite it being inhabited by mixed Ethiopian and Sudanese communities, creating a border that cuts across shared cultural and linguistic lines.
- A 2008 treaty temporarily pacified the region by recognizing Sudanese sovereignty over Al-Fashaga while granting Ethiopian farmers the right to live and work there, a deal that collapsed following Ethiopia's 2018 political shift.
- In November 2020, the conflict escalated into the Tigray civil war after Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed delayed elections and Tigrayan forces launched attacks on federal military bases, leading to a federal military assault.
- Abiy Ahmed requested Sudan seal the border to disrupt Tigrayan supply lines, but the Sudanese military seized the opportunity to evict Ethiopian farmers, militarize the area, and claim the territory.
- The eviction specifically targeted Amhara farmers, an ethnic group whose support Abiy Ahmed considered vital for his campaign against the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF).
- Ethiopia has formally reversed its previous stance, now asserting Al-Fashaga as Ethiopian territory and characterizing the Sudanese presence as an invasion.
- The situation is complicated by the presence of multiple armed factions, including ethnic militias, creating a highly volatile security environment that hinders any return to calm.
- The border standoff coincides with heightened regional tensions over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile, located 20 kilometers from the Sudanese border.
- Egypt fears that even a 2% reduction in Nile flow from the GERD could result in one million job losses, framing the dam as an existential threat to its water supply.
- In response to GERD concerns, Sudan joined Egypt's "Guardians of the Nile" military operation in 2021, signaling a strategic alignment with Cairo over Addis Ababa.
- International mediation efforts have thus far been unsuccessful, with experts calling for the African Union to lead a structured, regionally owned mediation process to resolve the crisis and set precedents for other contested borders.