Interview, Statement
Could Putin really start a nuclear war?
- Vladimir Putin intends to deter Western intervention in Ukraine by manipulating perceived conflict risks and signaling a demand for complete exclusion of the West, potentially driven by a sense of weakness regarding the war's slower-than-expected progress.
- The West plans to continue providing arms, imposing heavy sanctions, and supporting Ukrainian resistance while maintaining diplomatic off-ramps and direct communications between officials to manage risks without backing down.
- NATO will not place land-based missiles or bombers on high alert to keep risks low but retains a mutual assured destruction capability to launch nuclear responses if Russia initiates a nuclear strike against the West.
- The conflict is described as the most tense moment in European security for a generation, carrying a low but non-zero risk of accidental or unauthorized nuclear launch that could theoretically escalate into armed conflict, a scenario considered profoundly unlikely.
- Both sides are urged to exercise all available communication lines to prevent reckless escalation, as initiating a nuclear war is viewed as improbable given the existential threat to the Russian regime and population.