Statement
Covid-19: what’s really going on in Russia?
- Russia currently holds the third-highest global infection count, yet official fatality rates are reported as 7.5 times lower than worldwide averages, with local journalists citing mortality among frontline healthcare workers at 16 times the rate of similar countries.
- There is no guaranteed resolution to the epidemic as official figures are expected to misrepresent the true scale of the crisis due to regional leaders prioritizing the appearance of control over the Kremlin.
- The Kremlin may lack accurate data, creating a risk that policy decisions and responses will be based on incorrect information, a scenario described as the most dangerous.
- Driven by a fear of the Soviet Union's collapse similar to the aftermath of Chernobyl, leadership is expected to avoid liberalization or transparency regarding the situation.
- Vladimir Putin aims to extend his rule for the remainder of his life, utilizing the pandemic to tighten press restrictions and limit protests.
- A constitutional vote scheduled for July is expected to facilitate a scenario allowing Putin to remain in power until his death if passed.
- To address falling popularity, there is a risk that the administration will intensify repression rather than open the political system, with early signs of such measures already emerging.
- Increased repressiveness poses a threat to the possibility of a peaceful transfer of power, potentially rendering the country's future unpredictable and violent.
- Potential instability resulting from a crackdown on power could have consequences extending beyond Russia's borders to affect the global community.