Interview
Covid-19: When will a vaccine be ready?
- Vaccine effectiveness is uncertain, with potential variation across demographics such as elderly populations and differences in preventing disease versus transmission, while late-stage clinical trials involving novel technologies carry a higher than standard 80% failure risk, meaning a single effective "silver bullet" may not emerge.
- Global vaccination is projected to take at least a couple of years to complete, even if a successful vaccine is available as soon as the end of the current year, due to manufacturing constraints that may limit the first year's supply to approximately 2 billion doses, covering only about 1 billion people if multiple doses are required.
- The global economy is currently losing between $200 billion and $250 billion weekly, creating significant economic benefits for any vaccine arriving even a single day earlier than expected, though financial gains from the rollout are expected to be distributed unevenly among countries and individuals.
- Pharmaceutical companies involved in late-stage trials may sell vaccines at cost on a non-profit basis for the first year, though developers and distributors anticipate the potential for substantial profits including billionaire status, while actual per-shot costs are estimated to range from a few dollars to a few tens of dollars depending on undisclosed government deals and new production technologies.
- In most countries, vaccines are expected to be provided free to recipients, with some arguments suggesting governments might even incentivize uptake financially, yet vaccine confidence faces risks from misinformation and safety concerns regarding rapid development, with US survey data indicating only 50% of respondents would definitely take a vaccine against the 70% herd immunity threshold.
- Distribution priorities will likely prioritize healthcare and social care workers first, followed by the elderly and those with chronic conditions, before general populations, though it remains unknown whether immunity will be limited in duration or if periodic new versions similar to flu vaccines will be required.
- Developing nations face a high risk of being left behind due to historical hoarding by rich countries, manufacturing location constraints, and potential export restrictions if a major producer prioritizes domestic coverage, prompting calls for wealthy nations to fund access in poor countries.
- Achieving sufficient global supply will require significant investment to create an oversupply, potentially utilizing mechanisms like GAVI for financing, while the rapid start of research following the virus's genetic code publication in January suggests the world is well-prepared for future crises, though countries may need to establish advanced manufacturing capacity for future potential pathogens.