Statement, Interview
Covid-19: why vaccine mistrust is growing
The EconomistProfessor Jonathan Heaney, Professor Heidi Larson, Dr Jonathan Kennedy, Kristin Urquiza, Neil Johnson, Fadi Kouran, Slavia Chankova
- Scientists anticipate a vaccine breakthrough is imminent, though success requires approximately 70% global participation to achieve herd immunity, as failure to reach this threshold risks indefinite reliance on isolation, social distancing, and mask-wearing.
- A decline in vaccine acceptance of just six percentage points could jeopardize the 70% target necessary to control the epidemic.
- Public perception challenges are projected to intensify, with polls suggesting that securing voluntary compliance in wealthy nations may be as difficult as manufacturing the vaccines, driven by misinformation that is expected to spread online and potentially shift anti-vaccination sentiment from a minority to a majority view within a few years.
- Specific factors identified as exacerbating distrust include President Trump's role as a primary driver of misinformation and social media algorithms that prioritize sensationalist content over factual reporting.
- Strategic responses proposed include redesigning algorithms to suppress malicious content and prioritizing the delivery of evidence-based information before exposure to misinformation to improve acceptance rates.
- Without significant improvements to testing and tracing capabilities, a second wave of the virus is predicted, while unmet immunity goals imply a future trajectory of sustained negative lifestyle restrictions.
- Vaccine advocates expect to face continued opposition from anti-vaccination forces, including active attacks and pressure to silence providers, though past data indicates that some initial refusals may convert to acceptance upon exposure to positive messaging.