Covid-19: why your life will never be the same again

The Economist has created a "global normality index" using data from 50 countries to quantify pandemic-induced behavioral shifts and project post-pandemic norms.

• The index tracks 50 countries across three categories: transport (flights, public transit, traffic), leisure (sports attendance, box office, time outside), and business (office occupancy, retail footfall).
• A baseline value of 100 represents pre-pandemic normality; 0 indicates no activity, and values over 100 indicate activity exceeding pre-pandemic levels.

Historical analysis highlights precedents where pandemics drove structural societal changes through labor shortages and social disruption.

• The 14th-century Black Death (killing ~1/3 of Europe's population) accelerated the invention of labor-saving technologies like the printing press and spurred maritime exploration as remaining populations became more adventurous.
• The 1918 flu pandemic (killing ~100 million, triple the WWI death toll) coincided with the end of WWI, catalyzing shifts in gender equality as women entered factory work and triggering a 1919 surge in American startup formation.

Unlike historical crises, the current pandemic allows for real-time quantification of change due to ubiquitous sensor data and mobile technology.

• Analysis indicates a "hybrid world" will emerge rather than a full return to pre-pandemic conditions, with outcomes varying by country, industry, and household.
• In the UK, the index shows a pattern of sharp decline during lockdowns, summer recovery, decline during the second wave, and a subsequent rise correlated with vaccination programs.

Specific sector trends suggest permanent structural shifts, particularly in retail and workplace dynamics.

• In Italy, over 2 million people tried online shopping for the first time in the first half of 2020; despite lifted restrictions, in-person shopping remains below pre-pandemic levels.
• Amazon is hiring thousands of new employees in Italy based on the projection that former first-time online shoppers will retain the habit.
• Office occupancy is rising but is projected to remain below pre-pandemic levels as companies adopt permanent hybrid work models.

The pandemic has simultaneously accelerated futuristic trends (remote work, e-commerce) and revived mid-20th-century behaviors (drive-throughs).

• The number of drive-in cinemas in Britain increased from 3 to 40 during the pandemic.
• Similar retro-adaptations occurred globally, including repurposed Walmart car parks and drive-in events at German nightclubs.

The full long-term impact remains uncertain pending widespread vaccine coverage effective against variants.

• Economist James Francham notes the index provides a "normality tracker" showing improvement rather than solely tracking decline.
• The transcript concludes that while specific percentages are not given, the consensus is that behavior will settle somewhere between a full return to the past and a complete break into a new future.