Conference Presentation, Panel, Fireside Chat
Cybersecurity: The Internet of Threats
Milken InstituteEdward Lucas, Nadav Zafrir, Paul Gillan, Sinisa Patkovic, Dan, John Derrick, Stephen
- The gap between offensive and defensive capabilities is projected to widen due to the faster innovation pace of attackers and the increasing accessibility of state-sponsored or enterprise-level tools on the dark net, though this trend may not lead to total collapse as defense maturity rises and approximately 500 startups strive for breakthroughs.
- Cost of ownership for IT is expected to become unsustainable due to a convergence of rising attacker sophistication, talent scarcity, and heightened interconnectedness, with current solutions deemed neither effective nor cost-efficient enough to address the widening defense gap.
- Convenience is predicted to consistently override security priorities for most customers and organizations, creating a struggle to find the right trade-off and driving demand for seamless, consistent security that prevents users from resorting to personal devices.
- Complexity in distributed IT systems is anticipated to increase dramatically, making complexity the enemy of security, while the human factor remains central to attacks, necessitating a shift toward solutions that understand the people behind the malware and move away from passive tactics.
- Leadership and boards are expected to face significant challenges in understanding cyber risks due to a generational divide and a lack of cyber literacy, with governance gaps preventing justification for security spend as boards prioritize dashboard metrics over technical realities.
- Attribution of crime will remain difficult due to jurisdictional complexities and the absence of perpetrators at crime scenes, though financial services are expected to deepen cooperation on incident sharing and global law enforcement collaboration may rise to reduce crime in the short term.
- Cyber terrorism is predicted to emerge as a new domain, utilizing cyber capabilities for recruiting and propaganda, while the need to move laterally within networks creates a vulnerability that defenders can exploit through misleading information and proactive disruption strategies.
- Market pressure for reliability is expected to grow as customers demand software security comparable to physical safety standards in industries like automotive and aviation, potentially shifting liability concerns and driving demand for responsible disclosure of security incidents.
- Organizations will need to balance risk reduction with business performance, with smaller enterprises and charities increasingly relying on Managed Security Service Providers (MSSPs) for consolidated services they cannot afford to build internally.
- Future defenses are expected to evolve toward a learned competition where defenders must think like offense, utilizing better federated access management, hiring contractors for network penetration, and leveraging intelligence sharing to create a learned environment between attackers and defenders.
- The industry expects to see more investment in tools, staff, and resources, with technology aiming to make security an invisible, convenient component of the user experience, though the transition from a passive to an offensive posture will likely cause a deterioration in the situation before improvement occurs.
- Criminal accountability is anticipated to potentially increase if malware writers face serious prison time for global losses, and the justice system will need to mature to address crimes where perpetrators do not physically appear, although consequences for cyber failures currently lack the clarity of physical safety failures.