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Panel

Data-Driven Solutions to Advance the American Dream | Global Conference 2024

Milken InstituteRachel Goslins, Raj Chetty, Jon Clifton, Brian Hooks, Poppy MacDonald, John
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Panel Overview and Panelist Profiles

  • Panel Title: Data-Driven Solutions to Advance the American Dream.
  • Moderator: Rachel Goslins, Executive Director and Chief Creative Officer of the Milken Center for Advancing the American Dream (MCAD).
  • Panelist Raj Chetty (Harvard Opportunity Insights): Utilizes large-scale data (tax records, Facebook) to analyze economic mobility and guide policy.
  • Panelist Poppy Gentry (USA Facts): Aggregates government data from 100+ sources to help citizens access local economic and social metrics.
  • Panelist Brian Sheth (Stand Together): A philanthropist focusing on "customer-first measurement" to align funding with the lived experiences of those in poverty.
  • Panelist John (Gallup): Leads research on public perception, trust in institutions, and the evolving definition of the American Dream.

Economic Mobility Trends and Data Insights

  • Decline in Upward Mobility:
    • 92% of children born in 1940 earned more than their parents.
    • This probability dropped to roughly 50% for children born in the 1980s by age 30.
  • Geographic Variance:
    • Significant disparities exist even within metros; mobility rates can change drastically over two miles (e.g., Boston vs. rural Midwest).
    • Low-income children in Dubuque, Iowa, average $45,000–$50,000 at age 35, whereas peers in Charlotte, NC, earn less than their parents did.
  • Social Capital Correlation:
    • Data on 72 million Facebook users reveals a near-identical geographic pattern between "economic connectedness" (cross-class friendships) and upward mobility.
    • High social capital (cross-class interaction) is strongly correlated with higher economic mobility.
  • Impact of Data on Policy:
    • In Charlotte, NC (ranked 50th/50 in mobility), awareness of data led to $250 million in nonprofit investment and private sector partnerships (e.g., Bank of America job training).
    • Opportunity Insights uses this data to drive local policy changes in zoning, housing, and early childhood education.
  • Wealth vs. Income:
    • Current mobility metrics heavily focus on income; there is a data gap regarding the measurement of wealth accumulation and intergenerational wealth transmission.
    • Raj Chetty suggests financial institutions could fill this gap to better understand wealth-based mobility.

Public Perception and Institutional Trust (Gallup Data)

  • Trust and Direction:
    • Less than 25% of Americans believe the country is headed in the right direction (near historic lows).
    • Institutional trust has fallen from an average of 50% to 25% over the last 55 years.
    • National pride ("extremely proud to be American") has dropped to 39%.
  • Belief in the Dream:
    • 78% of Americans believe the American Dream is a worthy national goal.
    • 72% believe they can personally achieve it.
    • Only 51% believe the dream is achievable for everyone in the US.
  • Core Components:
    • Money: 88% cite financial stability as essential (perceived as the hardest element to attain).
    • Freedom: High alignment on the importance of civil liberties/rights.
    • Opportunity: Viewed as a critical but increasingly unevenly distributed element.
  • Evolving Definitions:
    • Emerging elements of the dream include safety, social connection, and purpose (66–77% alignment).
    • Traditional elements (money, freedom) are seen as harder to achieve, while newer elements (purpose, safety) are viewed as more attainable.
  • Immigrant Perspective:
    • 150 million people globally express a desire to permanently relocate to the US.
    • Immigrants exhibit the highest levels of economic mobility in the US, matching historical rates from 100 years ago.

Philanthropy and Measurement Methodologies (Stand Together & USA Facts)

  • Measurement Failures:
    • Stand Together highlights the "lamp post effect": measuring what is easy (top-down, formal sector data) rather than what matters (informal sector, lived experience).
    • Example: 45% unemployment in Montenegro was a data artifact of counting informal work as unemployment.
  • Customer-First Measurement:
    • Stand Together surveys ~50,000 people experiencing poverty quarterly via text to capture real-time, nuanced feedback on interventions.
    • Uses AI to analyze open-ended responses to identify barriers traditional multiple-choice surveys miss.
  • Data Accessibility (USA Facts):
    • Founded by Steve Ballmer to aggregate government spending and revenue data for public use.
    • Middle-Class Wealth: The middle 20% holds only 8% of total wealth (down from 12% in 1990), while the top 20% holds 70%.
    • Income vs. Purchasing Power: Adjusted for inflation, middle-class wages have declined since 2000, but total market income is stable due to reduced taxes and increased transfers (e.g., EITC).
    • Poverty Threshold: The income required to reach the 20th percentile dropped from $45,664 (2000) to $41,271 (2021) due to inflation and cost-of-living adjustments.

Educational Outcomes and College Mobility

  • College Selectivity:
    • Attending specific colleges significantly impacts long-term earnings; experimental data shows dramatic trajectory changes for students admitted to elite vs. non-elite institutions.
  • The Mobility Gap:
    • Few US colleges successfully combine high enrollment of low-income students with high upward mobility outcomes.
    • Elite schools (Harvard, Princeton) have high mobility outcomes but low low-income enrollment; Community colleges have high enrollment but lower mobility outcomes.
  • Data Gaps:
    • Poppy Gentry and Raj Chetty identified a need for holistic data on the K-12 pipeline (pre-K to job placement) and a lack of systematic data on the immigrant experience (time to employment, income, service reliance).

Forward-Looking Statements and Future Focus

  • Wealth Measurement: Raj Chetty proposes leveraging private financial data to map wealth distribution and its impact on mobility.
  • Immigrant Data: There is a need to quantify the specific factors attracting the 150 million people wishing to immigrate to the US.
  • Individual vs. Aggregate: Brian Sheth advocates for measuring individual aspirations rather than assuming a single path to the "American Dream" for all.
  • International Comparison: John Pollack suggests investigating if other nations (e.g., Saudi Arabia) offer aspects of the American Dream (stability, purpose) that the US lags in.
  • Economic Growth: Raj Chetty notes that increasing upward mobility is not just a fairness issue but an economic imperative that drives innovation and job creation.

Audience Poll Results (MCAD/Opportunity Insights)

  • Stability vs. Mobility: 74% of the audience prioritized mobility (advancement) over stability as the core of the American Dream.
  • Pathways to Achievement: The audience identified Personal Freedom (43%) as the top enabler, followed by Educational Opportunities and Job Opportunities.
  • Embodiment of the Dream: Dolly Parton was the most selected figure (43%), followed by Jackie Robinson (32%), Alexander Hamilton, and Mike Milken.