Interview, Fireside Chat, Conference Presentation
David Miliband, International Rescue Committee CEO: Talks at GS Session Highlights
- The number of states where conflict is the norm is expected to remain at approximately 30, characterized by a decline in interstate warfare alongside increasingly intense, prolonged, and complex civil wars.
- Specific conflicts in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Afghanistan, Somalia, and Burma/Myanmar are projected to persist for 30 years, while new wars are anticipated to emerge in Syria, South Sudan, the Central African Republic, and Iraq.
- Future conflicts are forecasted to transcend national borders to become sub-regional or regional conflagrations, with internal displacement acting as a multiplier for political instability.
- Global displacement is expected to average 20 years for expelled refugees, who will predominantly reside in urban areas rather than camps.
- Last year saw 52 million people displaced by conflict and disaster, with the Syrian crisis specifically projected to involve 12 million displaced individuals, 4.3 million in neighboring countries, and 10 million lacking basic life necessities.
- Refugee camp demographics are predicted to shift significantly, with Jordan's Zaatari camp potentially becoming the country's third-largest city and Lebanon hosting one million refugees within a total population of 4.5 million.
- In Syria, 250,000 people are expected to remain cut off from aid due to fighting, though a political settlement may be forced by the threat posed to American, Russian, and Iranian interests.
- Resolution in Syria is expected to require power-sharing among constituent elements and the participation of both Iran and Saudi Arabia, with fighting likely to pause only upon reaching a modus vivendi or through external imposition of order.
- The IRC plans to target five to seven-year-olds in a USAID-funded reading project in Pakistan, aiming to assist one million children while adhering to a principle of gender neutrality in aid delivery.
- The organization anticipates assisting approximately 600 refugees annually with resettlement in New York and New Jersey, while aiming to meet 10,000 refugees at airports yearly to facilitate housing, education, language training, and job placement.
- Of the 70,000 refugees granted residency annually, it is expected that all will proceed toward citizenship, despite the humanitarian sector's risk of achieving significant results on a small scale while millions remain in need.
- Challenges include a projected 66% pneumonia rate among beneficiaries of specific aid distributions, the need to declare no victory over Ebola despite improvements in Liberia, and an exponential growth rate of 1.2 cases per infection in Sierra Leone.
- International engagement is predicted to remain unpopular amidst rising pressure to "think local," a trend the speaker views as dangerous in a hyper-connected world, while crises like Ebola, Syria, and Ukraine are expected to generate significant political and economic ripple effects.