Fireside Chat, Panel
David Miliband on the future of liberalism
- David Miliband characterizes Steve Bannon's worldview as a "politics of poison" that correctly identifies societal grievances but offers "absolutely no answers," posing a significant risk to open societies similar to the pre-1930s trajectory in Germany.
- Miliband argues that the center-left and center-right must reject the populist narrative that they are merely defenders of the status quo, positioning themselves instead as insurgents capable of offering superior "politics of answers."
- The speaker cites the political damage of Brexit as a warning, predicting it will plague the UK for the next 30 years, while noting the League in Italy has shifted from anti-EU to anti-migrant sentiment because the EU remains popular with the Italian public.
- Populist movements currently secure 15% to 20% support in most European countries, with the exception of Hungary and Poland where the threat extends beyond economics to attacks on the free press and independent judiciary.
- Miliband identifies three structural failures driving the current malaise: a broken economic bargain characterized by rent-seeking by the top 1% and wage stagnation; a broken cultural contract regarding immigration; and a broken political contract where the trust between governors and the governed has collapsed.
- While not an economic determinist, Miliband asserts that current inequality levels are "morally as well as politically indefensible" and that social democrats must renew their political economy to rescue capitalism from its excesses, similar to the New Deal or War on Poverty.
- Proposed policy solutions include raising minimum wages, expanding the earned income tax credit, and implementing universal healthcare, though specific challenges remain regarding wage growth in the service economy and ensuring employee stake in firm success.
- Miliband explicitly rejects the notion that liberals support unlimited illegal immigration, noting that no comprehensive US immigration bill has passed since 1986 and that the idea of such support is a "complete lie."
- Regarding the refugee crisis, Miliband identifies civil wars in Yemen, South Sudan, and Syria as the primary drivers, displacing 25 million people, and describes the West's rollback of refugee rights as a "disgrace" contrary to the norms of the UN Charter.
- He counters the populist narrative of "over-managed" global institutions by arguing the reality is that there is "too little" international cooperation, citing that the EU is not centralized enough and the UNHCR lacks sufficient power.
- On China, Miliband distinguishes Beijing's desire to be the "center of the world" from a path of global hegemony, asserting that excluding China is the worst outcome and the US/EU must keep them within the global system rather than allowing them to build a parallel one.
- Miliband attributes the failure of China's integration to the WTO to a lack of a unified Western front, noting that the Obama administration's pivot to Asia was conducted unilaterally rather than alongside the European Union.
- When asked about tariffs as a pushback against China, Miliband argues they hurt the US more than China in the long term and advocates for using multilateral tools, strategic dialogues, and a united front to address intellectual property and technology issues.
- Regarding Sweden's rising inequality, Miliband notes the Sweden Democrats gained only 17% of the vote while mainstream parties secured over 80%, attributing local challenges partly to the rapid cultural changes and management failures associated with high immigration rates over the last two decades.
- The speaker acknowledges that traditional welfare policies may not suffice due to technology reducing access to middle-class jobs, highlighting unresolved questions on how a service economy can deliver middle-class wages without a negative income tax.
- Miliband reveals the International Rescue Committee (IRC) faces a crisis where humanitarian workers are under greater threat than ever before, with needs growing faster than capacity in conflict zones like Syria, Yemen, and Afghanistan.
- He proposes a "peacemaking" strategy for displacement that requires internationalizing conflicts, ensuring unity among major powers, and integrating non-state actors into peace talks, rather than relying solely on local or regional solutions that have historically failed.