Conference Presentation, Panel
Decision 2024: US Elections in Focus | Asia Summit 2024
Milken InstituteErin Murphy, Kevin Hassett, Matt Kaminski, Saleha Mohsin, Anthony Scaramucci, Richard Wike
- A recession is projected to have begun in August with unemployment signals, and election-related policy uncertainty is expected to double the odds of this economic contraction.
- Capital investment is anticipated to decline until the election concludes, as the option value of delaying purchases increases while voters and businesses await clarity on tax rates.
- Federal Reserve rate cuts are viewed as aligned with recession signals rather than political motives, particularly following the long lag required for monetary policy to affect the economy.
- Economic uncertainty may persist regarding Kamala Harris's personal policy stances, as her past support for measures like capital gains taxes may have been strategic, and a potential Democratic victory could create conflict between passing bills she might veto and the President's authority.
- Wall Street and Silicon Valley billionaires are expected to lean toward Donald Trump, despite some vocal opposition, with sentiment among these groups roughly split or slightly favoring the former president.
- Donald Trump is predicted to maintain a voting ceiling near 47.5% due to name saturation, making his re-election path uncertain despite a high floor of support.
- Donald Trump's core supporters are expected to remain loyal even amid outrageous statements due to a perception of economic unfairness, whereas the opposition must sustain excitement around "generational change" to win.
- Kamala Harris is expected to build a potentially transformative coalition by unifying diverse and previously opposed figures, though she faces challenges regarding internal party discipline and managing internecine warfare.
- Kamala Harris is predicted to introduce more policy uncertainty compared to a Donald Trump administration, which is viewed as having a predictable policy direction if elected.
- Both parties are expected to adopt protectionist and populist economic stances, leading to a prolonged phase of using economic weaponry such as tariffs and sanctions.
- Donald Trump may enact tariffs of up to 100% against nations that abandon the dollar, a threat considered credible rather than a bluff, while the European Union is expected to follow the U.S. lead with aggressive industrial policies.
- Ukraine is expected to be the most critical international decision for either candidate, involving the depth of support for that nation and the strategic relationship with China.
- Americans are projected to tolerate short-term economic costs from tariffs or sanctions if they perceive a long-term gain, similar to public reactions during the 1980s and the 2022 Russia invasion.
- The U.S. faces challenges regarding supply chain weaponization and potential Chinese infrastructure attacks on critical systems, though public appetite for defensive actions remains uncertain.
- House and Senate races are expected to remain extremely close, mirroring the presidential race and maintaining a "very divided" and "polarized" political environment.
- Polling accuracy is expected to improve by weighting data across approximately 12 variables and integrating online, phone, and text methods, though non-participation by Trump supporters due to media distrust is identified as the primary source of past underrepresentation.
- The "Bradley effect" is not expected to be significant, and the "Taylor Swift effect" may boost voter registration numbers, though its impact on actual turnout remains to be seen.
- October surprises are predicted to include natural or economic disasters, international events such as a Middle East ceasefire, or undiscovered issues regarding Kamala Harris's relatively new campaign, whereas Donald Trump benefits from a long history of public scrutiny.
- An internal schism is expected to develop between J.D. Vance and Donald Trump, triggered by inconsistencies in Vance's public statements regarding his Indian American family and Trump's rhetoric.
- The Biden administration's economic agenda is expected to benefit families, but the President's age is predicted to hinder effective advocacy, a role expected to be assumed by the Vice President.
- The 1980 election is cited as a parallel where a close contest could break decisively for the challenger toward the end, though a prediction exists that Kamala Harris will build a coalition capable of winning.
- Donald Trump is expected to have an advantage regarding October surprises due to his familiarity, while Kamala Harris faces vulnerabilities due to the newness of her campaign.
- Americans are expected to remain exhausted by partisanship, potentially creating a desire for incremental "baby steps" to address deep social divisions that are not expected to resolve overnight.