Podcast, Other
Don’t mention the war: Russia’s internal tensions
- Vladimir Putin remains in power amid an existential war in Ukraine, retaining support from a pacifist majority who comply with the regime despite economic deterioration, while a strong anti-war minority of exiles and activists and a splintered radical non-elite pro-war camp exist.
- Russia faces a very high chance of internal violence due to an armed militant group and a society "awash with arms," with low probabilities of total economic collapse similar to historical revolutions or of the population defending the leader.
- The current Russian regime is fragile, with the leadership unable to sustain the war indefinitely; a crisis similar to the 1980s under Gorbachev could emerge if the public consensus shifts, potentially leading to rapid, dramatic changes that will not allow for a return to normality even if the war freezes or fizzes out.
- In the UK, the 2025 election outcome will determine whether Labour's fragmented electorate becomes entrenched or reverses, requiring the party to maintain its 34% popular vote share against challenges from the radical right (Reform Party, which was second in 89 constituencies in 2024) and credible challenges from the Green Party (second in 39 constituencies).
- The Labour government plans to focus on growing disposable household incomes and reducing NHS waiting times for GPs and operations, viewing the reduction of immigration as existential to its future power, while lacking the advantage of being the alternative to an unpopular Conservative government.
- The Conservative Party, having suffered its worst result since 1832, must quickly reverse support fragmentation, with leader Kemi Badenoch focusing on her right flank regarding immigration and facing a critical test in May local government elections to see if she can halt further decline.
- Trust in politicians has fallen significantly, creating risks that support will "leech elsewhere" to smaller parties like the Greens, Liberal Democrats, Reform, and SNP, though a campaign to change the first-past-the-post electoral system is unlikely to succeed soon due to the 2011 referendum defeat and low priority among Labour MPs.
- In consumer branding, using nicknames lowers the likelihood of reviews being flagged as fake and increases purchase probability, but this benefit vanishes if the firm uses its own nickname in communications, which is perceived as inauthentic.
- In the workplace, managers using nicknames can reduce perceived employee welfare and psychological safety, whereas nicknames given to a manager correlate with greater well-being; best practices involve managers stamping out distressing nicknames while allowing bottom-up emergence and generally avoiding the "name game."