Interview, Fireside Chat
E10: Twitter & Facebook botch censorship (again), the publisher vs. distributor debate & more
- Hunter Biden's alleged laptop leak is expected to be attributed to foreign actors rather than the repair shop, while conservatives are predicted to seek the repeal of Section 230 following the blocking of the New York Post story.
- Amy Coney Barrett's Supreme Court appointment is anticipated within days to fast-track right-wing legal cases, and Section 230 is predicted to become obsolete, forcing platforms like Facebook, Twitter, and Google to operate with newspaper or television standards.
- A shift from algorithmic to reverse chronological social media feeds is forecast to cause a 90 percent drop in revenue per impression, rendering advertisements virtually worthless.
- Repealing Section 230 is feared to induce corporate risk aversion, leading to increased hiring of low-level content moderators and widespread content removal that could degrade the digital environment.
- The Trump administration's rapid recovery utilizing Regeneron and Remdesivir clonal antibodies is expected to contradict narratives regarding the severity of the COVID-19 crisis.
- The adjusted infection fatality rate in the US is predicted to be significantly lower than current estimates, with a true IFR ranging between 0.07 percent and 0.7 percent relative to 217,000 deaths.
- Donald Trump's refusal to participate in a Zoom debate is expected to be characterized as a result of his inability to manage speaking turns without interrupting others.
- NBC is predicted to aggressively pursue narratives against Trump during a town hall event as a form of penance, while polls show Joe Biden leading by up to 17 points in an election framed as a referendum on the incumbent.
- A potential Trump election loss is forecast to be a landslide driven by the alienation of female, Black, and other minority voters.
- If Trump exits office during the lame duck period, there is a 50 percent chance he will issue a "full family part" in pardons before leaving.
- California is expected to face a net population loss among the private sector middle class due to tax pressures, while the public sector middle class is projected to grow due to structural union issues.
- An 18-year term proposal for Supreme Court justices is anticipated to allow presidents two nominees per term, establishing a rotation where one justice retires and one is appointed every two years.
- Trump is predicted to lose every available political maneuver daily if poll numbers do not improve, eventually reducing his options to a single remaining path.