Conference Presentation, Fireside Chat, Interview, Roundtable, Other
E109: 2022 Bestie Awards Live from Twitter HQ
All-In PodcastCalacanis, Rudy Giuliani, Shellenberger, David Sacks, David Friedberg, Chamath Palihapitiya, Elon Musk
- Event Context: The All-In podcast team (Saxo, Chamath Palihapitiya, David Friedberg, and Jay Cal) convened in Lake Tahoe in late December 2022 to present their annual "Bestie Awards," celebrating winners, losers, and surprises of 2022 across politics, business, and science.
- Leadership Change: Jay Cal was unanimously voted the new Director of the All In Summit by the group during their vacation dinners.
- Saxo's Location: David Saxo was confirmed to be physically present at Twitter headquarters (X Corp) in San Francisco during the recording.
- Elon Musk Appearance: Elon Musk joined the podcast to discuss the first six weeks of his acquisition of Twitter, focusing on product iteration, cost-cutting, and free speech principles.
- Michael Schellenberger: The investigative journalist joined to discuss the "Twitter Files," specifically regarding FBI influence, content moderation, and the incentives of San Francisco's homelessness policies.
- Political Winners:
- Ron DeSantis: Saxo and Chamath identified Florida Governor DeSantis as the biggest political winner due to his 20-point re-election victory, coattail success in the House, and leading position in 2024 GOP polls.
- Xi Jinping: Chamath named Chinese President Xi Jinping as the most powerful individual of 2022, citing his consolidated authoritarian control over 1.2 billion people and 20% of global GDP.
- Volodymyr Zelenskyy: Friedberg selected the Ukrainian President as a surprise winner, noting his transformation into a global hero and the West's solidification of the democracy vs. autocracy narrative.
- Political Losers:
- The Progressive Left: Chamath argued the "progressive left" was the biggest loser domestically, with policies like "woke liberalism" being rejected even in Democrat strongholds.
- The European Union: Chamath cited the EU as the biggest international loser for being forced to abandon green/ESG policies to secure energy and survive the war in Ukraine.
- Jerome Powell & Liz Truss: Friedberg identified these two as a tie for biggest losers; Powell for the politicization of the Fed and inflation management, and Truss for her 45-day tenure as UK Prime Minister.
- The GOP: Friedberg argued the Republican Party was a loser because the "Red Wave" failed to materialize, Roe v. Wade backfired politically, and Trump remains a divisive figure.
- Blinken's NATO Strategy: Saxo identified Secretary of State Antony Blinken's January 27 statement ("NATO's door is open") as the year's biggest diplomatic blunder, effectively closing the door on a diplomatic off-ramp for Ukraine.
- Political Surprises:
- No Red Wave: Saxo and Friedberg agreed that the failure of the expected Republican "Red Wave" was the biggest surprise, despite high inflation and economic discontent.
- Trump's Viability: Friedberg and Saxo expressed concern that Donald Trump remains a viable primary candidate despite various scandals, noting the "codependency" between Trump and the mainstream media.
- MAGA Toothlessness: Chamath cited the marginalization of Trump and the MAGA movement as a surprise, contrasting with their previous mainstream political dominance.
- Business Winners:
- Defense Industry: Saxo highlighted Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman, both up ~40% in 2022, as beneficiaries of the Ukraine war, with U.S. stockpiles now depleted and new funding ($44B+) underway.
- Energy Sector: Friedberg noted oil and gas companies were up ~47% equity value, driven by supply constraints and conflict.
- OpenAI & Microsoft: Chamath and Saxo named the rise of ChatGPT and its partnership with Microsoft as the biggest business win, citing an existential threat to Google's ad-based search model.
- Macro Strategy: Chamath stated that investors and firms understanding the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and acting as "big bears" were the ultimate winners as interest rates rose.
- Business Losers:
- Big Tech: Saxo identified big tech as the biggest loser on a dollar basis, driven by crowded trades, increased regulatory scrutiny, and a shift in investor tolerance for unprofitable growth.
- FTX: Friedberg named the collapse of FTX as the biggest loss, highlighting it as a systemic failure of due diligence, governance, and the "grift" culture in crypto.
- Bob Chapek: Saxo selected Disney's former CEO, Bob Chapek, as a loser for his political engagement in the "Don't Say Gay" debate and his subsequent ouster by Bob Iger.
- Crypto: Saxo and Friedberg agreed that the crypto sector was the worst-performing asset class, following the predictions of 2021.
- Business Surprises:
- Elon Musk's Twitter Acquisition: Friedberg cited the acquisition, the rapid staff reduction, the shift to return-to-office mandates, and the subsequent ripple effect on Silicon Valley management styles as the biggest business surprise.
- Fed Hawkishness: Chamath was surprised by the Federal Reserve's consistency and aggressiveness in fighting inflation, ignoring political and market pressure to pivot.
- Adobe-Figma Deal: Saxo noted the $20 billion acquisition of Figma by Adobe as a surprise given the prevailing regulatory and market environment.
- Science & Technology:
- Net Energy Gain in Fusion: Friedberg highlighted the National Ignition Facility's demonstration of net energy gain as a critical milestone, spurring a 40% increase in fusion startup investment.
- CRISPR Cure for Leukemia: Chamath identified a breakthrough for a 13-year-old girl with T-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia using CRISPR-edited T-cells as the most significant scientific achievement of the year.
- Generative AI: The panel unanimously identified ChatGPT and the "Narrator Economy" (creating products via natural language) as the defining new tech trend.
- Flash-in-the-Pan Awards:
- The Metaverse: Saxo and Chamath retained their previous year's pick, dismissing the metaverse hype.
- Liz Truss: Saxo cited Truss's 44-day tenure as PM as a definitive flash in the pan.
- The All-In Summit (Miami): Friedberg humorously nominated the previous year's event as a flash in the pan.
- Crypto: Saxo and Chamath selected the crypto boom/bust cycle as a major flash in the pan.
- Elon Musk's Twitter Tenure:
- Cost Structure: Musk reported reducing the cost structure by a factor of 3–4x and bringing expenses under control.
- Workforce Reduction: Musk confirmed layoffs of approximately 50% of employees, retaining only those deemed "exceptional" and "critical."
- Bot Reduction: Musk stated that removing bots was technically easy; the primary issue was the incentive structure (MDAL) that previously encouraged their growth.
- Product Iteration: Musk emphasized a "bias to action," stating that making mistakes is necessary for speed and that the "batting average" of wins outweighs the losses during rapid iteration.
- Verification: New features include "affiliation badges" for organizations and a "view count" metric to incentivize content quality over likes.
- Free Speech Principle: Musk reiterated that speech should follow the law, but hate speech should not be promoted or monetized; algorithms will not amplify it.
- FBI & Twitter Files:
- FBI Influence: Michael Schellenberger revealed the FBI pushed boundaries on legal requests and engaged in "threat inflation" regarding Russian disinformation prior to the 2020 election.
- Hunter Biden Laptop: Schellenberger noted a coordinated effort to convince Twitter and media outlets of an imminent Russian hack/leak regarding Hunter Biden, which was used to discredit the New York Post report.
- Shadow Banning: Musk promised transparency on "visibility filtering" (shadow banning) and confirmed that some journalists were suspended for rule violations, though he apologized for the Paul Graham suspension.
- San Francisco Policy:
- Homelessness Incentives: Schellenberger argued San Francisco's welfare policies create perverse incentives for drug addiction and homelessness, with unsheltered living being three times deadlier than shelter.
- Recalls: The group noted successful recalls of the school board, DA Chesa Boudin, and Supervisor Gordon Maher, signaling a shift toward centrist governance in San Francisco.
- CEO of the Year:
- Consensus Category: The panel agreed that the "best CEO" of 2022 was any leader who cut costs, extended runway, and achieved profitability in the new macro regime.
- Specific Mentions: Warren Buffett (capital allocation), Brian Chesky (Airbnb turning profitable), Dara Khosrowshahi (Uber), and Vicky Holub (Occidental Petroleum) were highlighted for their financial discipline.
- Investor of the Year:
- Stan Druckenmiller: Saxo and Friedberg awarded this to Druckenmiller for correctly predicting inflation, the bear market, and a hard landing.
- Prop Shops: Chamath recognized "prop shops" (Citadel, Millennium, Brevin Howard) for outperforming the market via algorithmic risk management.
- Worst Investor: Chamath and Saxo collectively nominated themselves and all "long tech" investors for 2022 for failing to understand the shift in the Capital Asset Pricing Model.
- Turnarounds:
- Meta: The panel agreed Meta (Facebook) achieved a turnaround under Mark Zuckerberg after cutting costs and pivoting to efficiency.
- Rudy Giuliani Award (Self-Immolation):
- S.B.F.: Sam Bankman-Fried was awarded the "Worst Human Being" and "Most Loathsome Company" (FTX) for the $8 billion fraud.
- Herschel Walker: Saxo nominated Herschel Walker for his political self-sabotage.
- Inotiv: Friedberg nominated the animal testing company for cruelty to 4,000 beagles.
- Elon Musk: Friedberg controversially nominated Musk for "Rudy Giuliani" style reputation damage, arguing his Twitter tenure was a burden he shouldn't have taken.
- Media Recommendations:
- Favorites: Top Gun: Maverick, House of the Dragon, White Lotus (Season 2), Yellowstone, and the film Tár.
- Books: The Vital Question (Nick Lane) and Putting the Rabbit in the Hat (Brian Cox).
- Worst Trends:
- Fed Policy: Saxo criticized the Fed for "catching up" and oversteering into a crash.
- Government Spending: Chamath highlighted record deficits and the Christmas tree of spending bills.
- Tech Authoritarianism: Saxo and Friedberg cited the collusion between Big Tech, the government (FBI/DHS), and media censorship as a growing domestic authoritarian trend.
- Interest Rate Mania: Friedberg argued the market's obsession with interest rates distracts from identifying solid business fundamentals.
- Final Note: The episode concluded with a discussion on the FBI's raid on Mar-a-Lago, which Chamath described as "heavy-handed," and a reflection on Trump's tax returns, revealing his ability to use massive Net Operating Losses (NOLs) to pay zero taxes.