Interview, Fireside Chat, Podcast
E110: 2023 Bestie Predictions!
- The Wall Street Journal is expected to publish major think pieces roughly two months to a year after topics are discussed.
- Asian American college applicants are predicted to be the primary political winner in 2023 following a Supreme Court ruling to repeal affirmative action and strike down policies discriminating against them under Title VI.
- Saudi Arabia is forecast to have a transformative year under Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) due to rising global influence and potential shifts in global currency reserves via deals with the US, Russia, and China, including a petro-yuan trade agreement.
- Biden's administration is predicted to face confrontational relations with MBS, leading Saudi Arabia to double down on oil supply and pivot toward China and the yuan due to US technology transfer barriers.
- Nikki Haley is projected to be a major political winner of 2023 as a moderate Republican emerging from the nomination field, while Ron DeSantis is predicted to be a "critical loser" due to front-runner risk and challenges managing "forever Trumpers."
- Donald Trump is expected to lose 40 to 50 pounds using GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic by the 2024 nomination, face indictment by Merrick Garland, and potentially secure a global pardon similar to Richard Nixon's if he wins the nomination.
- Trump is predicted to win the 2024 Republican nomination by attacking DeSantis on physical attributes, though his influence within the party is forecast to wane with endorsements becoming less effective.
- The IMF is predicted to be the biggest political loser of 2023 due to global debt unraveling and inevitable criticism of its interventions, while global debt markets, particularly emerging sovereign debt, are expected to begin unraveling due to high debt-to-growth ratios and rising interest rates.
- California and San Francisco are forecast to be major political losers facing budget shortfalls and austerity measures, coinciding with the US dollar trading more like a risk asset by the end of 2023 as its reserve currency dominance potentially declines.
- The consumer is predicted to be the biggest business loser of 2023 due to record credit card debt, mortgage rates exceeding 7%, declining savings, and persistent inflation driven by wage pressures and labor market tightness.
- America's natural gas industry is predicted to be a top business winner as Europe builds LNG infrastructure to reduce Russian dependence, while oil and gas services and heavy equipment manufacturers are expected to benefit from global infrastructure spending.
- DoorDash, Airbnb, Uber, and Etsy are predicted to benefit from workers re-entering gig platforms amid sticky unemployment, whereas energy stocks may be a worst-performing asset class if consumption drops during a recession.
- Series B through D growth-stage private companies are forecast to be major business losers as investors retreat to early-stage deals, while seed stage and early Series A investing are predicted to be the best-performing asset class.
- Starlink is predicted to go public in 2023 with a valuation of at least $37.5 billion (half of SpaceX's $75 billion), capture significant plane internet market share by replacing Ka-band at a fraction of the cost, and Relativity Space is expected to execute a launch in the third week of January 2023 with a potential trajectory similar to SpaceX if a $1 billion order book is unlocked.
- OpenAI is predicted to be the biggest business winner of 2023, potentially securing billion-dollar-plus investment or a major Microsoft deal, though its $29 billion valuation is viewed as momentum-driven with significant legal challenges regarding copyright and fair use.
- Google Search is forecast to be a major business loser in profitability and engagement, potentially losing 10% to 15% of usage as AI models converge on similar inference capabilities, while ChatGPT/OpenAI faces a high probability of being sued.
- AI-driven media is predicted to rocket in popularity, GLP-1 drugs are expected to become widely used for weight loss and longevity, and cell and gene therapies are forecast to become mainstream with ramping FDA approvals.
- White-collar workers without hard skills are predicted to face significant layoffs, while laid-off tech workers forming groups of two to four are expected to achieve rapid funding success.
- Junk debt and commercial office real estate in San Francisco are predicted to be worst-performing asset classes due to variable-rate loans and rising vacancy rates, while consumer credit is forecast to hit a wall with record debt and rising interest rates.
- Cash and short-term treasury bills are predicted to generate 5% to 5.5% risk-free returns, semiconductor capital equipment companies are expected to perform well, and pharmaceutical infrastructure companies will benefit from cell and gene therapy needs.
- Apple is predicted to make a wild card acquisition of a company like Disney or an automaker to diversify from China and address antitrust issues, while Amazon is expected to add health services as a fourth pillar.
- TikTok is predicted to be forced to divest or go public due to bipartisan political pressure, and the relationship between Biden and Zelenskyy is forecast to face a divergence leading to a potential rift if the Ukraine war stalls or Ukraine attempts to retake Crimea.
- Russia and China are predicted to sign a massive trillion-dollar agreement on energy, agriculture, and rare earth minerals, and austerity measures are expected to be a dominant trend as individuals and businesses cut luxury consumption.
- The film "Oppenheimer" is predicted to be a major cultural event, while "Ted Lasso" Season 3, "Cocaine Bear," "Dune: Part Two," "Loki" Season 2, and the new Ant-Man movie are anticipated as significant releases.
- Prince Harry's book "Spare" is predicted to face scrutiny and potentially struggle to reach break-even sales.