Fireside Chat, Other
E16: Reflecting on the riots at the US Capitol, plus: Georgia runoffs, vaccine distribution & more
- The outlook anticipates a brief period of stability in early 2021 before "all hell breaks loose," with specific predictions that a violent confrontation or "shootout at the O.K. Corral" could have occurred had security not failed, noting that four people died while 4,000 could have.
- Projections indicate Trump will be removed from office within two weeks or less, potentially via the 25th Amendment to prevent a 2024 run, with legal forecasts suggesting prosecutors will pursue charges carrying minimum sentences of five to ten years rather than misdemeanors.
- Forecasts predict the Southern District of New York will aggressively prosecute all implicated states, resulting in significantly more prosecutions than seen during the BLM protests, while the DOJ and law enforcement prepare for "white knuckling" through the next two weeks.
- The Republican Party is expected to lose Georgia and re-center itself following the loss of approximately 10 to 15 million of Trump's 35 million voters, with specific damage attributed to the "antics" of candidates like David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler who are described as having "completely failed" or being "mistakes."
- San Francisco crime is predicted to have spiked with a 45 percent increase in burglaries and a 35 percent increase in stolen cars over one year, while Gavin Newsom's recall is forecast to gather one million signatures and conclude with a vote in mid-to-late February.
- Vaccine distribution plans estimate the US could vaccinate everyone in 75 to 90 days using a military-style operation similar to Israel's, where 20 percent of the population is already vaccinated, contrasting with the current status where 21 million doses distributed have resulted in only 5.9 million in arms, leaving 15 million doses unadministered and costing 4,000 lives daily.
- Strategic predictions for the vaccine rollout include contracting 500,000 nurses for 24-hour shifts with one-time bonuses, while acknowledging a 40 to 60 percent reaction rate among the population as an acceptable "reality in war."
- The summary includes expectations that Biden will act as a "sane alternative" to de-escalate partisan warfare, whereas Trump's actions are predicted to have destroyed his popularity and reduced his earnings by two billion dollars, preventing a successful coup.
- Political consequences for opposition figures like Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley are predicted to be severe due to "performative theater" that backfired, potentially destroying their prospects, while a federal election review commission is suggested as the preferred path forward over prosecuting Trump.
- The outlook notes that 20 million of Trump's voters would be inflamed by prosecution, yet the system is expected to be "stress-tested" effectively enough to condemn the actions, though it acknowledges the difficulty in proving "imminent lawless action" legally.
- Specific predictions regarding California include Kim Kardashian being a "great fit" for the recall race due to her distribution and likability, and the success of a centrist candidate replacing Newsom.
- The text forecasts an "incredibly insane level of partisan warfare" requiring de-escalation, with the possibility of "highly unexpected and highly impactful things" occurring before the next meeting.
- Drug policy predictions suggest that without enforcement, prices will drop and usage will rise in a "vicious cycle," while the broader consensus is that "nobody on the right is looking for root causes" and everyone across the spectrum condemns the events.
- The summary notes that the system was not designed for Trump's behavior, leading to a loss of norms and trust, but that "nobody is above the law" and holding Trump accountable allows the Republican party to "wake up out of this haze."
- Operational critiques include claims that police were told to "tame down" (calm down), that security was not reinforced, and that there is a level of complicity to be found regarding the Capitol breach.
- The list reiterates that Trump is "too dangerous to leave unprosecuted" and that if he is not charged, he may commit something more violent in the final 14 days of his tenure.
- Specific predictions include Stacy Abrams being a "genius" who should be in charge of the vaccine rollout and mobilizing turnout, contrasting with the "morons" in the Republican Party.
- The outlook concludes with the assessment that the American Democratic Institutions were the "big loser" of 2020, but that a federal review commission or the 25th Amendment could better serve the country than impeachment, which might have further polarized the nation.