Interview
E23: Radical DAs, breaking down FB/Google vs. Australia, sustained fear post-vaccine & fan questions
All-In PodcastCalacanis, Friedberg, Ray Dalio, Chesa Boudin, J. Cal, Chamath Palihapitiya, David Sacks
- The podcast host expects to regain their Twitter handle within approximately one week.
- New ground rules for the podcast are planned, mandating no PR content from Jason's portfolio and granting any cast member veto power over episodes based on quality or values alignment.
- Without these changes, the podcast format is predicted to persist with "softball" journalism or "gotcha" tactics, with the four-on-one interview structure reserved only for "pretty amazing and critical" guests.
- Hosts anticipate that guests declining scheduled appearances will be interpreted as an avoidance of being "pilloried" during the recording.
- A debate is proposed with the San Francisco District Attorney regarding local policies, with the expectation that the DA lacks the courage to engage.
- Recall efforts against District Attorneys Gascon and Boudin are predicted to be forming and strengthening due to progressive criminal justice policies.
- Continued "burn it all down" political activism and decarceration trends are expected to result in increased chaos and death, necessitating a future societal shift toward nuance and incremental improvement.
- Strongman figures in the next 20 to 30 years are predicted to become "crisper, sharper, smarter," effectively gathering support without the "long tail shittiness" of earlier iterations.
- Within six weeks, California vaccination restrictions and prioritization methods are expected to end as supply completely outstrips demand.
- By May or June, abundant U.S. vaccination supply is predicted to allow mask-free travel and a return to normal social activities as market forces converge with policy.
- Most manufactured goods are forecast to be produced using genetically engineered microbial organisms rather than traditional industrial scaling by 2050.
- Inequality and climate change are expected to become the primary investment arcs for capital within 10 years.
- The U.S. dollar is predicted to cease being the world's reserve currency due to unpayable deficits, leading to a perception of the U.S. government as unable to repay loans without printing money.
- The percentage of the global population living in authoritarian regimes is expected to continue growing, raising the question of whether "capitalism plus authoritarianism" or "democracy plus capitalism" will prevail.
- Real interest rates are anticipated to rise to 6% or 7% in the coming years due to global trading block fragmentation and supply chain reflation, negatively impacting high earnings multiple companies.
- The inability to underwrite growth through debt is predicted to trigger the 21st century's biggest crisis, causing financial crises, revolutions, and societal breakdowns.
- All four podcast hosts expect to be vaccinated by April 1st, with appointments theoretically available within 30 days.
- By next Wednesday, California's Tier 1B vaccination eligibility is expected to open to child care workers, teachers, and agricultural workers.
- Current California vaccination tiers are characterized as ridiculous and a waste of resources that will soon be discarded.
- Vaccination supply in California is predicted to be oversupplied by May, with shots exceeding demand.
- Australian laws requiring payment for hyperlinks are expected to threaten the open internet and fair use, potentially forcing a reduction in news content or shutdowns of links if the government sets prices.
- The Australian law is predicted to serve as a test case for other nations, including the U.S., potentially affecting Twitter and other networks with similar royalty structures.
- Traditional media is predicted to continue struggling with business models, leading to consolidation or the rise of individual bloggers with no funding for content creation.
- Fundamental injustices regarding cannabis laws, specifically the disparity in sentencing between Black teenagers in Texas and California companies, are expected to remain contentious without "surgical" solutions.
- A persistent "shark attack" mentality of fear after vaccination may prevent schools from opening and people from flying, despite safety data.
- Market forces and government policies are expected to converge for widespread vaccination, but a human subconscious trained in fear may prevent a full return to normal civil behavior.
- Lockdown policies containing 10 pages of exceptions for essential workers are interpreted as nonsensical and used as political capital.
- Missed investments in Square and Twitter represent a significant financial loss, with Square's valuation reportedly growing from $4 billion to $124 billion in five years.
- Bitcoin is predicted to continue generating significant unrealized gains or losses, with a potential mid-deca-billion dollar position mentioned as lost.
- Inflation driven by the creation of four or five major trading blocks and supply chain vertical integration is identified as the biggest risk to all investment portfolios, driving prices higher.
- Coding and financial literacy are predicted to be the two critical omissions in current education curricula for 12-year-olds.
- Bioengineering is expected to be the most critical field of study for children, as biology becomes "softwareized" to fix the body with engineered machines.
- Education systems are urged to teach "radical self-reliance" and "entrepreneurialism" to combat victim mentality and the perception that the system is rigged.