Interview, Fireside Chat
E40: A Bestie gets COVID, Delta breakthrough, Billionaire Space Race & more
All-In PodcastChamath, Calacanis, Friedberg, Richard Branson, Andy Weir, Jeremy England, David Sacks
- David Sacks forecasts Pfizer will introduce booster shots in September, citing Israel's data where efficacy against infection dropped from 95% to 64% with nearly two-thirds of recent cases being vaccinated individuals from January, and predicts widespread booster requirements for everyone within the next six months of vaccine protection waning.
- The Delta variant is expected to be 60% more transmissible than the Alpha variant and 2.5 times more than the original COVID strain, resulting in an R-naught range of five to eight, with Sacks noting the virus is mutating rapidly similar to the common cold which has 1800 variants.
- Sacks predicts a "100% probability" of a "killer strain" emerging within two to three years if 40% of Americans remain unvaccinated, causing meaningful damage to that demographic, while noting that memory B cells provide persistent immune memory even as antibody titers decline.
- Breakthrough infections and psychological fear are expected to trigger social lockdowns in the next few weeks, causing people to stop traveling, flying, and dining out, which could derail the delicate economic recovery and create economic ripples persisting for a duration described as a "tail" of six months.
- Politicians are anticipated to seize the opportunity presented by a "small modicum of risk" to implement lockdowns, with specific references to Governor Gavin Newsom potentially re-locking California in September, and Freeberg expects the U.S. to follow Israel's "soft suppression" strategy of learning to live with the virus.
- Economic discrimination against unvaccinated individuals is forecasted to rise, with businesses and schools likely mandating vaccination, including the potential firing of unvaccinated essential workers like teachers and pilots, and Freeberg warns that if 10% of the population acts with fear, significant economic consequences will follow.
- The private space industry is projected to continue growing with venture capital investment reaching nearly $10 billion in 2020 and $2 billion in Q1 of the current year, though companies will likely struggle to generate revenue from space imaging or mining rare minerals compared to communications.
- David Sacks anticipates Richard Branson's commercial operations will start within the next two or three quarters, with space tourism eventually becoming safer than driving a car, and additive manufacturing expected to enable the construction of rockets on Mars.
- Starlink is projected to bring broadband to 1 or 2 billion people within a decade, and Sacks predicts pervasive internet access everywhere on Earth within the next five years, while noting the industry faces a high risk of crashing like 15th-century maritime travel before transforming the economy.
- Freeberg and Jason Calacanis predict that "zeroism" (attempting to eliminate every last vestige of the virus) will fail, forcing the country to learn to live with it, and that the politicization of vaccination will lead to a self-inflicted wound where half the country focuses on trivial issues while the other faces a crisis.
- Companies like Apple are expected to be the first to enforce vaccination mandates due to employee pressure and the "woke mob," as employers view the virus as a safety issue and anticipate a right for employees to demand a vaccinated workplace.
- Economic repercussions include potential slow-downs due to political intervention and the fear of the virus, with Calacanis warning that the U.S. spent $10 trillion battling COVID last year and lacks the resources to repeat that level of spending.
- The psychological scars and fear of the virus are expected to drive economic behavior more than actual statistics, with people canceling vacation plans and avoiding restaurants, which could impact airlines and hotels, despite lumber prices falling and markets pricing out some inflation.
- Sacks notes that while hospitalization and fatality statistics for breakthrough infections are statistically low, the fear remains the primary driver of behavior, and he personally expects to wait six to twelve weeks before traveling to Disneyland.
- Calacanis suggests that if the U.S. had utilized excess vaccines to achieve full vaccination, cases could drop to 1,000 a day and deaths to 10 a day like Israel, but the current situation involves a permanent impact on human life expectancy and long-term symptoms associated with over 200 different issues.