Jul 10, 2020, 10:15 PM ETPodcast, Interview

E5: WHO's incompetence, kicking off Cold War II, China's grand plan, 100X'ing American efficiency

The "All In Podcast" ranked #10 on Apple's Tech Podcasts list despite only releasing four episodes, with hosts joking about overtaking traditional media.
Jason Calacanis acknowledged his reputation for mentioning early investments (e.g., Uber, Virgin Galactic, Slack) as a "super team" phenomenon that attracts traffic.
Hosts established a recurring "foursome" dynamic featuring Jason Calacanis, Chamath Palihapitiya, David Sacks, and David Friedberg.
A casual segment detailed a golf outing where hosts competed in high-stakes wagers ($100 per hole, totaling up to $500,000 in theoretical value), with Chamath winning the over/under on completed holes.

David Sacks traced the origin of Roundup (glyphosate) litigation to a 2015 political manipulation within the WHO's International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), which reclassified the chemical as carcinogenic despite EPA and scientific consensus on its safety.
This reclassification triggered tort litigation against Monsanto and its acquirer Bayer, with settlement costs projected between $10 billion and $15 billion.
Chamath Palihapitiya criticized the WHO as a politicized, academic body rather than a scientific one, citing its delayed acknowledgment of airborne COVID-19 transmission despite evidence presented by over 250 of its own scientists.
Hosts argued that multilateral bodies like the WHO are ineffective in crises due to competing national interests, noting that the US withdrawal under Trump was a response to organizational ineptitude.
The consensus was that global health governance requires unilateral leadership from a superpower (historically the US) rather than slow-moving multinational consensus.

The hosts identified the US-China relationship as the defining geopolitical conflict of the century, characterizing it as a new "Cold War II."
David Sacks argued the conflict began with the US embargo on Huawei 5G technology, marking a shift from proxy wars between nation-states to proxy wars between "client corporations" (e.g., Huawei, TikTok).
The consensus is that China's strategy is not merely ideological but an economic war to build a global "productivity block," acquiring assets in Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America while the US engages in military spending with zero ROI.
David Friedberg suggested China's actions are often deterministic but not always a singular grand plan; rather, they result from high-level policy direction (e.g., 2007 doctrine) enabling industry to acquire global assets (e.g., Syngenta for $47 billion).
Jason Calacanis highlighted the risk of China controlling 80% of rare earth materials and 70% of semiconductor manufacturing (TSMC in Taiwan), creating a vulnerability that could necessitate a US military response if China invades Taiwan.
The hosts proposed a US strategy of "resilience over efficiency," advocating for onshoring critical supply chains (chips, pharma, rare earths) even at a higher cost.
Chamath Palihapitiya suggested a North American "productivity block" (integrating Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean) to replicate China's labor advantages without the geopolitical threat.

David Sacks defined the "Overton Window" as historically narrow, where previously benign topics (e.g., "Black Lives Matter," mask-wearing) have become hyper-politicized and binary, preventing bipartisan consensus.
Jason Calacanis recounted a personal conflict where a journalist doxed him via reverse image search on Twitter, which he resolved by threatening to contact the journalist's boss, highlighting the dangers of online harassment.
To bridge the divide, hosts proposed three non-controversial national initiatives:
- Energy: Massive subsidies for energy independence to hasten the decline of Russian and Middle Eastern geopolitical leverage.
- Food: Government-subsidized or free healthy produce to ensure national food security and reduce reliance on imports.
- Technology: Co-opting supply chains for lithium, cobalt, and chips by investing in governance and mining in allied nations (e.g., Chile, Africa).

David Friedberg championed "biomanufacturing" as a 100x opportunity, using engineered microbes to produce food, materials, and pharma inputs in fermentation tanks, reducing the need for traditional agriculture and factories.
- The company Perfect Day raised $300 million, and Impossible Foods raised $400 million, signaling investor interest in this sector.
- Biomanufacturing could decouple the US from Chinese dependencies on animal protein and pharmaceutical manufacturing.
The hosts argued that the US must stop offshoring critical infrastructure (pharma, chips, PPE) to ensure national survival, even if it means higher consumer costs for non-strategic goods.

Who wins today: The consensus among all four hosts is that Joe Biden is favored to win if an election were held immediately.
Biden's Strategy: His "do nothing" strategy is working because he functions as a "make it stop" button for a public fatigued by Trump's divisiveness and incompetence.
Trump's Path to Victory: The only viable path for Trump is the passage of a multi-trillion dollar stimulus bill prior to the election, directly injecting capital into swing state voters.
Facebook Ad Ban: The potential ban of political ads by Facebook (per recent news) is expected to disadvantage Trump, who relies heavily on ad spend to define opponents, whereas Biden is benefiting from the status quo.
Debates: David Friedberg suggested Biden should conditionally accept debates only if Trump releases tax returns, using the platform to pivot the narrative.
Demographic Shifts: The hosts noted alarming exit poll data in Georgia indicating a massive shift in Democratic turnout among younger demographics, suggesting Trump's historical base is eroding in traditionally safe Republican states.

School Reopening: The hosts expressed concern over the psychological impact of prolonged school closures on children, particularly those under 14 who have high social needs and lower transmission risks.
Micro-Schools: Calacanis announced plans to launch a private micro-school with 1-5 students to avoid viral outbreaks while maintaining socialization.
Testing Technology: Friedberg advocated for widespread, at-home rapid protein-based testing (specifically mentioning Vector Dickinson) as a viable tool for keeping schools open, with costs estimated at $20-30 per test.
Current Trajectory: The US is effectively operating as an "undeclared Sweden," moving toward herd immunity through a haphazard, local-level approach rather than a coordinated federal containment strategy.