Podcast, Interview, Conference Presentation
E59: Twitter's content warning algo, equity audits, politicians trading stocks, Fed's next move
- The "Build Back Better" bill is projected to be shelved indefinitely, potentially after a postponement to March, due to projected costs exceeding Congressional Budget Office estimates, high inflation rates, Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, and a crumbling political will amidst the 2022 election season.
- The Federal Reserve is anticipated to implement up to three interest rate hikes of 50 basis points next year and conclude quantitative easing by the end of the first quarter by reducing asset purchases from $90 billion to $60 billion monthly.
- Economic forecasts suggest a potential 4% growth rate for the upcoming year if inflation declines alongside Federal Reserve predictions, though the administration faces risks of being labeled responsible for economic overheating and excessive money printing.
- The 2022 election cycle is predicted to result in a "red wave," particularly in blue states, driven by public fatigue with COVID-19 restrictions, failed progressive policies such as defunding police, and a backlash against perceived under-policing and under-education.
- Specific political risks include potential recall elections for the San Francisco Board of Education, where at least two members could be replaced, and a targeted recall for District Attorney Chesa Boudin supported by Mayor London Breed.
- Public health predictions anticipate the Omicron variant triggering a mass immunizing event that could establish herd immunity, while school closures in blue states are expected to cause learning losses compared to red states maintaining normal operations.
- The mRNA technology sector is forecast to undergo a transformation over the next decade, with cancer and genetic disease therapies accelerating to market due to pandemic-driven clinical trial accelerants, potentially preventing more deaths over a 30 to 40-year horizon.
- Internal liberal fragmentation is expected to accelerate following the 2022 elections, separating pragmatists from radical progressives, whose proposed racial equity audits and spending models are predicted to fail in practice and lead to electoral removal.