E60: The 2021 Bestie Awards PLUS Jack Dorsey starts the Web3 Wars

2021 Bestie Awards: Political Analysis

• Biggest Political Winners:

  • Eric Adams: Selected by Jason Calacanis as the winner for defeating "woke" Democratic sensibilities in the NYC mayoral race; viewed as a blueprint for the Democratic Party's future in non-woke suburbs.
  • Blockchain Technology: David Friedberg's pick, arguing it represents a populist shift away from centralized control and poses a serious threat to current socio-political systems.
  • Glenn Youngkin: Chamath Palihapitiya's choice for winning Virginia by leveraging centrist, pro-business, and anti-education-union (CRT-focused) platforms; seen as a signal for a "silent majority" backlash against fringe politics.
  • Joe Manchin: Jason Calacanis selected Manchin for voting against the Build Back Better bill; compared to Paul Volcker for displaying the courage to halt massive government spending despite immediate unpopularity.

• Biggest Political Losers:

  • Elizabeth Warren: Chamath Palihapitiya cited her as a loser because the largest tax payment in US history ($11 billion) was made by a private citizen (Elon Musk), not through her proposed policies; her socialist agenda is viewed as increasingly irrelevant compared to private sector execution.
  • Kamala Harris: David Sacks highlighted her 28% approval rating and lag behind President Biden, characterizing her as an "equity scold" whose lecture-based style has alienated the public.
  • Tony Fauci: Jason Calacanis argued Fauci lost credibility due to his "deterministic" approach to pandemic forecasting; predicting a binary end to the pandemic via vaccines proved incorrect as the virus evolved.
  • The Progressive Left and Alt-Right: Chamath Palihapitiya identified both extremes as losers, noting that their policies have failed at the city/state level (left) and federal level (right), leaving a vacuum for "normalcy."

• Biggest Political Surprises:

  • The January 6th Insurrection: David Friedberg cited the physical breach of the Capitol as the most shocking event of the year, exposing the fragility of US institutions.
  • Kamala Harris's Sidelining: David Sacks expressed surprise at the Democratic Party's apparent decision to sideline the Vice President for the 2024/2028 cycle, viewing it as a lack of belief in her electability.
  • Joe Manchin's Impact: David Friedberg was surprised by the speed and scale of Manchin's opposition to the Build Back Better bill, predicting he will be viewed historically as a crucial check on fiscal irresponsibility.

2021 Bestie Awards: Business & Technology

• Biggest Business Winners:

  • Retail Investors: David Friedberg identified the retail investor class as a winner, citing the GameStop saga where they organized to move markets against institutions.
  • Elon Musk: Chamath Palihapitiya named Musk the clear winner, praising his execution and "zone of mastery" across Tesla, SpaceX, and Neuralink.
  • The "ANG" (Amazon, Netflix, Google): David Sacks selected this acronym over the traditional "FANG" (excluding Meta), noting Amazon's seamless CEO transition, Apple's $3T market cap, and YouTube's growth to 2 billion users.
  • Tiger Global: David Sacks cited Tiger Global for productizing late-stage growth capital, deploying $15 billion in a single year with a 48-hour term sheet turnaround.

• Biggest Business Losers:

  • Institutions Shorting Retail: David Friedberg pointed to Melvin Capital (Gabe Plotkin) as a loser, noting they lost billions shorting GameStop and required emergency bailouts from Citadel.
  • Chinese Billionaires: David Sacks identified this group as the biggest losers due to the CCP's crackdown on tech titans (Alibaba, Didi, Tencent), shutting down IPO markets and tightening state control.
  • Meta (Facebook): Chamath Palihapitiya selected Meta as a loser due to "decaying morale," talent flight, and the failure of the "metaverse" pivot; he predicts peak market cap within the next year.

• Biggest Business Surprises:

  • Miami as a Tech Hub: David Sacks highlighted the rapid rise of Miami as a tech center, driven by zero income/capital gains tax and a pro-business stance from Ron DeSantis.
  • NFTs: David Friedberg cited the explosion of NFTs as a surprise, noting the potential for creators to monetize work without middlemen, despite the current speculative bubble.
  • Constitution DAO: Jason Calacanis was surprised by the DAO raising $40 million in 72 hours to buy the Constitution, contrasting this rapid capital formation with the SEC's lack of regulatory clarity for crypto.

• Science Breakthroughs:

  • Starch Synthesis: David Friedberg highlighted the Chinese scientific achievement of creating starch from carbon, CO2, and renewable energy in a tank, bypassing photosynthesis.
  • Oral Antivirals: David Sacks pointed to Pfizer and Merck's oral antiviral pills as a likely endgame for the pandemic, effective even against mutations that evade vaccines.
  • In Vivo CRISPR: Chamath Palihapitiya cited the first successful human trials of CRISPR gene editing in the body, specifically targeting toxic liver proteins and inherited blindness.
  • Starship: Chamath Palihapitiya noted SpaceX's Starship (SN10) as a breakthrough engineering feat capable of making humanity multi-planetary.

2021 Bestie Awards: Trends & Cultural Shifts

• Best Trends:

  • Centrism: Jason Calacanis and David Sacks agreed that a backlash against the "woke left" and "alt-right" is creating a demand for centrist, functional governance.
  • Creator Economy: David Sacks and Jason Calacanis highlighted the rise of direct-to-consumer monetization (Substack, Patreon) bypassing traditional gatekeepers.

• Worst Trends:

  • Founder/Investor Entitlement: Jason Calacanis criticized the surge in founders and investors expecting massive rewards without proven execution or governance.
  • Supply Chain Decentralization: Chamath Palihapitiya warned that US reliance on China for critical minerals (lithium, cobalt) for green energy and EVs is a national security risk.
  • Rise of Authoritarianism: David Sacks cited the expansion of censorship, vaccine mandates, and the suppression of unvaccinated citizens in the US and Europe as a dangerous global trend.
  • The "Metaverse" Rebranding: Jason Calacanis dismissed the Metaverse hype as a rebranding of existing gaming cultures (Fortnite, Minecraft) rather than a new technological frontier.

2021 Bestie Awards: Leadership & Personalities

• Best CEO:

  • Satya Nadella: Jason Calacanis praised him for Microsoft's "compounding juggernaut" performance, successful acquisitions (LinkedIn, GitHub, Nuance), and low-profile, high-execution strategy.
  • Jack Dorsey & Elon Musk: David Friedberg selected both for their "direct" leadership style, speaking directly to the public to define the future and create "religion" among their followers.
  • Brian Armstrong: David Sacks chose Coinbase's CEO for his bold decision to ban politics in the workplace, resulting in a successful IPO and high retention.
  • Frank Slootman: Chamath Palihapitiya nominated the Snowflake CEO for his aggressive, competitive "win at all costs" leadership style.

• Best Investors:

  • Dan Loeb: Chamath Palihapitiya highlighted Loeb's performance across early-stage (Rivian, Upstart), growth, activism, and crypto.
  • Sequoia Fund: Jason Calacanis praised Sequoia's new evergreen fund structure and its ability to hold winners like DoorDash, Airbnb, and Snowflake.
  • Ken Griffin: David Sacks cited Citadel's founder for delivering 10% returns on a $500B fund and politically winning the "Wall Street Bets" hearings.
  • Sequoia (General): David Friedberg selected Sequoia as the top private market firm for balancing returns, scalability, and durability.

• Biggest Turnarounds:

  • Ford Motor Company: Chamath Palihapitiya cited Ford's 130% stock gain, strategic EV investments (Rivian), and successful portfolio management.
  • Kyle Rittenhouse: David Sacks selected the acquittal of Kyle Rittenhouse as a reputation turnaround from media demonization to vindication.
  • WeWork: David Friedberg highlighted WeWork's recovery from near-bankruptcy to a successful IPO and stable business model.
  • Disney: Jason Calacanis noted Disney's successful pivot to streaming (Disney+) and the rebound of theme parks despite the pandemic.

• Worst Human Beings / Self-Immolations:

  • Elizabeth Warren: Jason Calacanis criticized her for using the success of a private citizen (Elon Musk) to fund political campaigns while avoiding paying taxes on her own assets.
  • Travis McMichael, Gregory McMichael, William "Rod" Roadie, and Derek Chauvin: David Sacks identified these individuals as the worst human beings for the killings of unarmed Black men.
  • Dr. Peter Daszak: David Sacks selected the head of Eco Health Alliance for allegedly suppressing lab-leak theories regarding COVID-19 to protect NIH grants, calling him a catalyst for the pandemic's spread and censorship.
  • Andrew and Chris Cuomo: David Sacks cited the brothers as the primary example of self-immolation, with Andrew resigning due to harassment allegations and Chris being fired from CNN for media misconduct.
  • Senator Kyrsten Sinema: Chamath Palihapitiya criticized her as an economic illiterate authoritarian whose "moral absolutism" has backfired politically.

• Other Notable Awards:

  • Most Loathsome Company: PG&E (felony manslaughter charges for wildfires), Tyson Foods (David Friedberg's critique of animal agriculture), and The New York Times (David Sacks' critique of "woke journalism").
  • Best New Tech: DAOs (Jason Calacanis), Human Space Travel (Chamath Palihapitiya), Starlink (David Sacks), and Plasma Fusion (David Friedberg).
  • Favorite Media: Ray Dalio's The Changing World Order (Book), Dune (Movie), Yellowstone (TV Show), and The French Dispatch (Movie).

Podcast Dynamics & Future Plans

• Internal Conflicts:

  • David Sacks revealed that the podcast nearly fractured this year due to feuds between him and Jason Calacanis, and separately with Chamath Palihapitiya.
  • Mediation was required on two occasions to keep the group together, though Sacks confirmed the current operational agreement is solidified.
  • The group acknowledged that the high success and wealth of the members create intense friction, but the intellectual "game" they play together has improved over the last 10 episodes.

• Upcoming Schedule:

  • Next Episode (Prediction Show): Scheduled for the weekend following the All-In Summit in Los Angeles (late January).
  • All-In Summit: Scheduled for May 24-26 in Miami; tickets are $250 paid, with 12 complimentary tickets per host for their guests.
  • Format: The podcast will continue its "no weeks off" schedule, moving to the Upfront Summit in LA for the next taping.

• Guests:

  • A special guest is confirmed for Episode 69 (and potentially 420), identified as Jack Dorsey (Twitter CEO) and Chris Dixon (Andreessen Horowitz), though Jack Dorsey was previously difficult to book due to scheduling constraints.