Feb 24, 2022, 7:05 PM ETInterview, Fireside Chat

E70: EMERGENCY POD! Russia invades Ukraine: Reactions, Putin's ambition, Biden's response and more

All-In PodcastPutin, Biden, Chamath, Calacanis, Friedberg, Jay Kal, Sax, David Sacks

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The conflict is predicted to metastasize into a more severe situation if not de-escalated, with expectations that it will last one to two years before resolving or shifting, though the speaker notes uncertainty regarding the duration.
The United States is predicted not to intervene militarily in Ukraine due to the lack of NATO treaty obligations and the risk of World War III, although a five-year moratorium on Ukraine joining NATO is cited as a missed opportunity to diffuse the conflict.
It is expected that the U.S. will not respond militarily to the invasion, a decision viewed as potentially weakening global influence and credibility while giving permission for counter-actions to U.S. interests.
Public opinion regarding intervention is expected to potentially shift if images of civilian casualties and bombing continue to emerge, yet entering the war on the battlefield is predicted to remain very unpopular due to war exhaustion.
Cyber warfare is expected to have already begun with Russian state websites down, with the U.S. potentially confronting Russia on the cyber battle stage over the next couple of weeks if physical attacks persist.
Sanctions are expected to be announced by the Biden administration and described as potentially crippling, with Western nations predicted to be very punitive financially, though sanctions are not expected to act as a strong deterrent.
Russia's foreign currency reserves are expected to remain strong enough to withstand the conflict, and its largest state-owned enterprises are predicted to be unable to raise funds from a coalition of governments.
The speaker predicts the average cost per kilowatt hour in China could drop to four cents or as low as one cent via nuclear power, whereas U.S. industrial energy prices are expected to remain in the nine to 10 cent range.
China is expected to build 140 nuclear power stations over the next 30 years, potentially taking coal offline and reducing industrial energy prices to the four to five cent range.
Solar and wind are expected to be the practical solutions deployable today, able to leapfrog the multi-year investment cycles required for natural gas, which the speaker expects takes six or seven years to yield a return.
Every U.S. domestic natural gas company is expected to refrain from putting incremental capital into shale or offshore projects, while solar is predicted to be done in chunks without a multi-year investment cycle.
A $3 trillion investment in solar everywhere in the U.S. is expected to create domestic jobs and reduce carbon, with an estimated cost of $30,000 per home totaling $2.5 trillion.
Replacing the electrical grid is expected to cost $5 trillion with an annual upgrade cost of $500 billion, while Australia is cited as having installed solar for $5,000 per home without subsidies.
Germany is expected to be able to turn nuclear power plants back on, though the process is noted as not simple as a light switch and would still take years.
Germany is expected to have taken a different approach if it had not turned off its nuclear plants for 20 years, and the speaker predicts massive solar and nuclear investment by the EU would terrorize Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Germany and the U.S. are expected not to seek further military or economic escalation, which is anticipated to cause the market to rally, with the S&P 500 expected to be at the bottom around 3800.
The probability of a half-point rate hike is expected to be below five percent, with the Fed expected to hold off on aggressive interest rate increases while the armed conflict continues.
The S&P 500 bottom is expected to be touched only if there is no World War, and multiples in internet and SaaS sectors are expected to be below historical trends, with growth rates in e-commerce companies expected to be revised down.
If the conflict metastasizes, market multiples are expected to go down further, whereas a localized conflict with no recession might present a bargain hunting opportunity.
The era of speculative 10-year bets is expected to be gone, with opportunities expected to emerge for cherry-picking productive cash-generating businesses.
The speaker predicts that in 10 years, critical resources for conflict could shift to copper and lithium, and energy prices are expected to continue climbing due to under-invested infrastructure and trade route shutdowns.
The All In Summit is expected to take place on May 15, 16, and 17 in Miami, Florida, with speakers voted on by fans and scholarships expected to be available.
It is predicted that Putin has bought himself a headache and likely will not want the problem long-term, with the eastern parts of Ukraine expected to support him while the west remains difficult to manage.
The situation is predicted to be more like the 2008 Georgia conflict, where Putin invades, institutes a favorable government, and gets out, provided there is no escalation.
It is expected that if Putin is not held, he will pick another country or region to go after in 2023 or 2024.
American primacy is expected to be preserved by being smart about using strength and not frittering it away in unnecessary wars, with the line of U.S. non-intervention expected to remain at existing NATO treaty obligations.
The $30 trillion national debt is expected to make it necessary to deliver on the American balance sheet, and redirecting the $3 trillion Build Back Better bill to pure solar everywhere is expected to be disruptive and act as a dividend.
It is expected that solar paired with nuclear and batteries will solve the entire problem of energy efficiency and security, with electricity expected to become the biggest cost driver for automation and manufacturing systems.
It is expected that close to zero countries are actively jockeying to stop the train towards renewable alternatives this century, and many fossil fuel-dependent businesses are expected to make a massive shift towards alternative renewable sources in the next couple of years.
Saudi Arabia is expected to sell down its equity interest in Saudi Aramco over time and invest in next-gen industries, while Exxon is expected to make continued and increased investments in R&D for renewables.
China is expected to see energy costs decline to the sub five cent per kilowatt hour range over the next two to three decades, with China's industrial energy prices expected to drop to the four to 5 cent range.
It is expected that Americans will need to buy better gas mileage cars and move to EVs, though there is backlash, and 85 million standalone homes exist in the U.S. with only three percent currently having solar.
Biden is expected not to have sanctioned Putin directly or removed Russia from the SWIFT system, and the speaker expects the $30 trillion national debt makes it necessary to deliver on the American balance sheet.
The Ruble against the dollar was off nine or ten percent at the time of the discussion, and the speaker predicts the complexity of Putin's motives involves decades of history.
Ukrainian entry into NATO is expected to be viewed as a direct challenge to Russian interests by the Russian elite, a red line Putin has consistently stated for 20 years.
Putin is expected to be a rational actor and a "coldly ruthless" dictator who wants to negotiate, rather than a madman, and Biden is expected to have announced a coalition with the EU, Australia, and others imposing sanctions.
The speaker predicts that if nuclear fission reactors were deregulated and made a mainstay of energy production in the U.S., they could be built with safer techniques.
Media coverage is expected to be "orgasmic" and like "war porn" regarding the conflict, and neocons formerly of the Republican Party are expected to have become Democrats beating the drums of war.
Anyone who tries to understand the enemy or de-escalate will be portrayed as unpatriotic or a "Putin apologist" by this group, and Barack Obama is expected to be accused of being a "Putin apologist" today if he said what he said in 2012/2014.
The speaker predicts that in 10 years, the critical resources for conflict could shift to copper and lithium, and the U.S. was expected to be energy independent a year or two ago until fracking was banned.
It is expected that the media coverage will be "orgasmic" and like "war porn" regarding the conflict, and neocons formerly of the Republican Party are expected to have become Democrats beating the drums of war.
Anyone who tries to understand the enemy or de-escalate will be portrayed as unpatriotic or a "Putin apologist" by this group, and Barack Obama is expected to be accused of being a "Putin apologist" today if he said what he said in 2012/2014.
The speaker expects that the economy will get through the season of uncertainty in this particular year, and the Fed is expected to hold off on interest rate increases while the armed conflict continues.
Capital around the world is expected to get locked up as armed conflict comes to bear, tightening markets, and it is expected that the Fed cannot act as aggressively as planned under conditions of great uncertainty.
It is expected that work must be done around framing to drive people to want to see changes happen, and politicians are expected to be responsive to polling data and constituents' wishes to get reelected.
Trump is expected to have said that if he were president, the invasion would not be happening, and the market is expected to rally because of the signal that Europe and the U.S. are not seeking escalation.
Europe is expected not to want further escalation militarily or economically, and Biden is expected not to have sanctioned Putin directly or removed Russia from the SWIFT system.
The speaker predicts that the complexity of Putin's motives involves decades of history and layers of cultural and economic motives that are hard to unpack, and Chamath thought the probability of the invasion was close to zero in 2022.
It is expected that Putin has been rational then or Obama was trying to steer him towards rationality, and the All In Summit is expected to take place on May 15, 16, and 17 in Miami, Florida.
Speakers will be voted on by fans for the All In Summit, and scholarships are expected to be available for those who cannot afford the regular ticket.