Conference Presentation, Panel
Ebola and Economy: The Cost of Infectious Disease
Milken InstituteTom Evans, Michel Deville, Catherine Deland, Gabrielle Fitzgerald, Dr. Pranav Shetty, Nancy Ossie
- Total fundraising for the Ebola response is expected to reach approximately $4 billion, with potential allocation toward diagnostic vaccines and drugs.
- GDP growth in Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia is projected to remain flat for an extended period, alongside a long-term economic impact on the West African economy.
- Life expectancy in Africa is not anticipated to return to pre-HIV crisis peak levels for a significant duration.
- Funding for neglected diseases remains expected to rely heavily on public sources from high-income governments and philanthropic groups, with private industry contributions remaining low and disease-specific funding remaining almost trivial despite economic impacts.
- Tuberculosis mortality is expected to remain massive, with death rates exceeding all Ebola cases combined over a 2.5-day period, while the mortality rate for XDR TB is projected between 30 and 70 percent.
- The World Health Organization (WHO) aims to declare the end of the Ebola outbreak in Liberia by May 9th, contingent on no new cases within a 42-day window, with transmission chains expected to break within 21 days if every case is traced.
- Early recovery efforts, including school openings and child vaccinations, are expected to continue through the end of the year.
- A global health emergency workforce is expected to be developed with standing WHO capacity for the first 30 days of an emergency, supported by a potential World Bank pandemic emergency fund.
- Investment in country health systems is expected to be the primary method for future readiness, necessitating local-level strengthening to enable effective national and international responses.
- Public-private partnerships are anticipated as the future standard for global health responses, including vaccine distribution and disease control.
- It is expected that within two years, the global community will be better capacitated to respond to health emergencies with improved, more interoperable international response mechanisms, though these may not be perfect.
- Two years out, the Ebola epidemic is expected to be completely controlled, though a recurrence in 50% of communities is feared; historically, an average of 24 Ebola outbreaks occurred over the last 40 years, implying outbreaks recur every two years on average.
- A billion-dollar R&D pool is expected to raise questions regarding prioritization among health systems, diagnostics, drugs, and volunteer preparation.
- The Gates Foundation is expected to continue prioritizing the harnessing of individual skill sets and interests to achieve goals.
- Pre-pandemic vaccine or universal influenza vaccine research is hoped to see significant advancement in the near future.
- Modular vaccine development and synthetic biology are expected to drastically impact discovery and development phases, potentially enabling standardized manufacturing with reduced costs.
- Regulatory authorities are expected to remain open to preclinical efficacy approaches using animal models for future pandemics where the pathogen is not yet circulating.
- Creative financing mechanisms, such as a ticket tax on plane flights, are expected to be considered for global health funding.
- A risk exists that the world will move on from the Ebola crisis without acting on lessons learned, and markets often react only when patients appear in developed countries.
- There is an expected need for structured compensation and recognition for healthcare workers who have died.
- China developed and obtained regulatory approval for an Ebola vaccine in seven months, demonstrating potential for rapid response in future scenarios.
- The international community is expected to react more strongly to new diseases in new locations and take greater responsibility to ensure support is not withdrawn via trade and travel isolation.
- The UN mission model for public health may be reused if lessons are learned, despite initial coordination lacking, with the WHO expected to institutionalize contingency funds and surge capacity mechanisms.
- All innovations and investments are expected to come to fruition at the local level in the future.