Fireside Chat, Panel, Conference Presentation
Election 2016: Navigating the Fault Lines
- Donald Trump is projected to win the Indiana Republican primary by a non-competitive margin, while the Indiana Democratic primary is forecast as a near-even split (51-49) between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton.
- Following a Sanders victory in Indiana, the campaign expects to raise an additional $10 million online, whereas the Clinton campaign anticipates no further spending in the state due to the delegate-focused nature of the race.
- Clinton's path to the presidency is expected to require winning a bloc of states totaling 242 electoral votes from the last six elections plus Florida, which is polling 9 to 14 points in her favor, to reach 271 electoral votes.
- Trump is expected to win the Republican nomination and the presidency in a direct matchup with Clinton with high probability, despite potentially losing the popular vote by a significant margin by securing specific Rust Belt states.
- Both parties are predicted to undergo a "near-death experience" and emerge radically different, with the Republican Party needing to reconcile internal divisions or risk alienating its base if Trump wins.
- Republican primary turnout is expected to surge 63% to 67% compared to previous figures, while Democratic turnout is forecast to decline by 23%.
- The general election is anticipated to function as a referendum on the opposing candidate, with both major figures expected to be unpopular and their campaigns targeting opponents rather than positive policy platforms.
- A Clinton presidency is expected to result in a divided government with a Republican House and Democratic Senate, limiting legislative transformation to regulatory actions or foreign policy unless significant compromise occurs.
- Under a Trump presidency, the House leadership is expected to utilize the reconciliation process to repeal Obamacare, enact tax reform, and potentially pursue entitlement reform, though Trump himself may lack a cohesive governing ideology.
- The Republican Party is expected to pivot toward appealing to white working-class voters and focusing on job concerns, potentially distancing itself from previous rhetoric on illegal immigration and Hispanics.
- Third-party efforts are predicted to fail due to the Electoral College structure and the high cost of independent wealth required to succeed.
- Congressional approval ratings are projected to remain low, estimated in the high 20s to low 30s, driven by stagnant median household incomes over the past 15 years and fear regarding in-state tuition costs which are 66% higher than in 2000.
- Key policy areas such as free trade (specifically TPP), immigration reform, and the confirmation of a Supreme Court justice are expected to face significant legislative hurdles or depend on timing within the lame duck session.
- Vice presidential selections include potential candidates such as Tim Kaine, Deval Patrick, or a governor for Clinton; and retired generals, military leaders, Susana Martinez, or Nikki Haley for Trump.
- Republican women and the evangelical vote are identified as critical decider groups, with Trump facing potential significant losses among women if perceived as disrespectful, while the party relies on their support to win.
- The 2016 election cycle is expected to conclude with the Republican Party surviving and potentially revitalizing, similar to the Democratic recovery after the 2012 loss, even if the nominee's policies diverge from traditional limited government principles.
- If Clinton wins, Republicans are expected to attempt to confirm Merrick Garland during the lame duck session, whereas if Trump wins, he is expected to nominate a justice similar in ideological weight to Justice Scalia.