Election 2020: what a Biden victory could mean for America

Election Forecast & Polling

• The Economist forecast (August) assigns Joe Biden a very high probability of winning the presidential election.
• Biden currently leads in traditional "blue-wall" battleground states: Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
• Polling indicates Biden has a competitive chance in previously solid Republican states, including Arizona, Texas, and Georgia.
• Donald Trump's re-election odds fell from a 50-50 chance pre-pandemic due to the coronavirus crisis, civil unrest, and the firing of government watchdogs.

Political Positioning & Ideology

• Biden's Senate voting record (averaging -0.314 over 18 Congresses) places him at the exact center of the Democratic Party, slightly more moderate than the party average (-0.306).
• Biden shifted leftward alongside his party but remains distinct from progressive candidates like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren, avoiding a "radical" label to appeal to a broad electorate.
• Analysts argue Biden's "dull" but open-to-change positioning is strategically advantageous for enacting progressive policies compared to more ideologically extreme candidates who may alienate moderate voters.

Domestic Policy Proposals

• Healthcare: Biden opposes "Medicare for All" but proposes a government-run public option to lower premiums for private market buyers, potentially leading to a similar outcome through a gradual, less disruptive mechanism.
• Climate: Biden was lukewarm on the Green New Deal but proposed a $2 trillion environmental plan targeting carbon neutrality by 2050, prioritizing massive investment in green infrastructure.
• Executive Action: Biden plans to use executive orders to immediately reverse Trump-era rollbacks on immigration and environmental regulations, bypassing potential legislative gridlock.

Legislative Strategy & Congressional Outlook

• Democrats hold a 36-seat majority in the House (as of 2018) but lack control of the Senate.
• To pass major legislation, Democrats must retain the House and flip at least three Senate seats if Biden wins, or four if he does not.
• Biden's broad appeal is expected to generate strong "coattails" that improve the chances of Democrats flipping the Senate.
• The "filibuster" rule in the Senate remains a significant barrier to passing ambitious legislation without Democratic control of both chambers.

Foreign Policy & Global Leadership

• Biden intends to restore U.S. leadership on global issues including climate change, the coronavirus pandemic, and the Iran nuclear deal.
• His extensive experience on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee is positioned to reverse the isolationist tendencies of the previous administration.
• Global democracies are expected to welcome a return to American-led international engagement.

Party Succession & Long-term Outlook

• At age 78, Biden views himself as a "bridge" to the next generation of Democratic leaders, planning to mentor successors during his term(s).
• Despite his age, the current political environment offers Biden the unique opportunity to govern more ambitiously than predecessors like Bill Clinton or Barack Obama, as the American public currently favors federal intervention more than at any point in the last 68 years.
• Despite favorable polling, the outcome remains contingent on Trump's ability to secure favorable developments regarding the coronavirus and maintain voter support.