Election 2020: What has President Trump done to America?

Economic Context and Policy

• In 2019, the US unemployment rate hit a 50-year low with buoyant stock markets and fast wage growth for the lowest-paid workers.
• The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act lowered the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% and decreased taxes for approximately 65% of working Americans, with benefits skewed toward the wealthy.
• These tax cuts contributed to faster-than-expected GDP growth relative to other rich-world economies but significantly increased the federal budget deficit.
• The pandemic triggered a deep recession, yet the US is projected to be the best-performing G7 economy in 2020.
• Congress passed an historic $2 trillion fiscal relief package, the largest economic relief package globally at the time, with no immediate signs of inflation or pressure to halt borrowing.

Trade and International Relations

• The Trump administration withdrew from 10 international organizations or treaties and adopted an "America First" anti-globalist stance.
• Tariff tactics were used to renegotiate deals with Mexico, Canada, and South Korea, replacing NAFTA with the USMCA.
• A trade war with China began in 2018, causing average tariff rates on goods between the two nations to more than triple.
• The Phase One trade deal signed in January 2020 included Chinese commitments to lift barriers and purchase American products, though China is not expected to fully meet these targets.
• Analysts project that high tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese exports will be politically difficult to reverse even if the administration changes.

Immigration and Border Security

• Mexico did not fund the southern border wall; construction was funded by shifting funds from the Department of Defense.
• The administration reduced refugee admissions from 108,000 (end of 2016) to 24,000 (end of 2019), causing Canada to overtake the US as the top refugee resettling nation.
• Policies enacted via executive orders have made asylum claims significantly harder to pursue at the border and increased the number of migrants in detention centers.
• The shift in Republican Party identity toward white identity politics and the dismantling of bipartisan immigration norms are viewed as changes that are difficult to undo by a subsequent administration.

Environmental Regulation and Climate

• The US formally announced withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement.
• The administration reversed 79 environmental rules, including the repeal of the Clean Power Plan and the deregulation of coal plants and methane pipelines.
• These rollbacks are estimated to increase carbon dioxide emissions by roughly 3% annually.
• Legal challenges to these deregulations exist, but the risk remains that Supreme Court rulings could permanently limit the EPA's authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions for all future administrations.

Judicial Appointments and Legal Legacy

• President Trump appointed 217 federal judges, including three to the Supreme Court, representing more than a quarter of the judiciary.
• This appointment pace was the fastest for any president in their first term in 40 years, with a strategic focus on lifetime appointments.
• Conservative judicial dominance poses a long-term risk to Democratic policy ambitions, particularly regarding the potential limitation or repeal of Roe v. Wade and challenges to the Affordable Care Act.

Political Polarization and Discourse

• The administration is credited with accelerating political polarization and inflaming partisan discourse through rhetoric labeling critics as "the enemy of the people."
• Unlike previous divisive leaders, Trump did not attempt to reach across the aisle, instead embracing divisiveness.
• Surveys indicate a rise in extreme partisanship, with one in five Americans believing violence could be justified if the opposing party wins the election.
• The Republican Party has increasingly aligned with racially conservative views, cementing an identity-based political fracture that is expected to persist regardless of the election outcome.