Interview, Podcast
Election rejection: fears of a contested result
The EconomistJohn Prideaux, Charlotte Howard, Idrees Kahloon, Geoff Duncan, Jamie Raskin, John Priddo, Idris Khaloun
- Donald Trump is expected to refuse concession regardless of the November outcome and will likely repeat election theft claims, with a specific prediction that he will not concede if Kamala Harris wins, whereas she is expected to concede if she loses.
- The GOP is anticipated to challenge results through changing election rules, filing lawsuits in swing states (specifically Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin), undermining trust, and potentially delaying certification via individual county officials or election board members.
- A "blue shift" in vote tallies is predicted in states like Pennsylvania and Arizona due to laws preventing the pre-processing of mail-in ballots, which may allow Democrats to overtake Trump's leads in late counts.
- The "stop-the-steal" narrative is forecast to persist and intensify, with the MAGA movement continuing to stack election boards, pass restrictive voting laws (such as mail-in voter ID), and utilize social media to plant doubt, creating a risk that 70% of Republicans will not accept the election outcome.
- If Trump loses, the outlook includes a significant public relations effort to delegitimize the result, potential legal challenges decided by the Supreme Court, and a high probability of public mistrust, unrest, and toxicity that could hinder effective governance.
- Despite these risks, there is a prevailing expectation of a peaceful transfer of power by January, though the process may be turbulent, with the view that the legal ability to overturn an election remains limited by the judiciary and the Electoral Count Reform Act.
- The election is projected to be historically competitive, with the margin potentially decided by one or two states, increasing the likelihood of legal battles and scenarios where the result is disputed or delayed.
- Future risks include the possibility that Trump or a family member remains in politics to perpetuate claims of deserved power, and that Democrats might face internal pressure to contest results if the Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump in a narrow victory scenario.
- Georgia is uniquely expected to maintain the fairest and most legal elections in the country, contrasting with the broader expectation of heightened legal and regulatory activity in other swing states.
- The long-term outlook suggests the "Stop the Steal" effort may succeed as a political movement that prevents the Republican Party from moving beyond Donald Trump, even if it fails as a legal strategy.