Keynote
Electric cars will come of age in 2018
- The year 2018 is projected as a global tipping point where total cost of ownership for electric vehicles will fall below that of petrol or diesel cars, accompanied by tighter regulations on fossil fuel vehicles and a global acceleration in electrification adoption.
- A snowball effect is expected wherein increased demand drives infrastructure expansion, prompting billions in corporate investment and leading to specific manufacturers transitioning to fully electrified fleets by 2020.
- Government mandates are predicted to ban the sale of new fossil fuel cars by 2040 in Britain and France, while major cities including Paris, Mexico City, Athens, and Madrid are set to restrict diesel car access after 2025.
- China is anticipated to lead global production and adoption of electric vehicles by 2020, utilizing the shift to address domestic pollution issues and altering global power dynamics by reducing the influence of oil-exporting nations.
- Rising electric vehicle usage is forecast to decrease the importance of oil, potentially increasing instability in oil-producing nations during periods of low prices, while demand for cobalt is expected to triple by 2020.
- The industry faces reputational risks regarding "dirty cobalt" sourcing that could tarnish the electric vehicle sector, though the transition is described as irreversible with the eventual displacement of the internal combustion engine.