Panel, Fireside Chat
End of Ownership: Life in the Shared Economy
Milken InstituteAlec Russell, Andrew Byrne, MB Christie, Richard Laughton, Colin Mayer, Joseph Puccini
- The sharing economy is projected to evolve significantly over the next 20 years, featuring a coexistence of human-driven and autonomous transport, with autonomous technology potentially being resolved globally while real drivers remain in operation.
- Market dynamics may shift toward monopolies within the next 15 to 20 years as autonomous vehicles are introduced, driven by the concentration of ownership in information sectors that could create global entities outpacing national regulatory capabilities.
- Regulatory classification of gig workers poses a material risk; if drivers are mandated to be salaried employees, platforms may control working hours and trip acceptance ratios, whereas unresolved dichotomies could force a shift toward third-rate tax classifications.
- Future transport business models "probably" involve platforms or public entities owning assets rather than drivers, though the specific structures for major companies like Uber, Waymo, and Lyft remain uncertain 25 years from now.
- Societal trends indicate a continued rise in the average age for obtaining driving licenses and a decline in car ownership among younger demographics, a shift expected to accelerate within the sharing economy sector.
- Economic structures may undergo a transformation over the next decade or two, moving from income-based taxation to land-based or consumption-based taxes as the economy becomes more disembodied.
- Tax collection mechanisms may evolve to utilize vast electronic data for dynamic systems similar to Estonia's, potentially increasing the tax base for the sharing economy, provided governments can avoid driving participants into a growing hidden economy.
- Tech companies face increasing risks of failure due to trust erosion and a lack of governance processes relative to their scaling pace, potentially leading to demands for public ownership to prevent systemic failures.
- Artificial intelligence may replace human decision-making in court systems within 10 to 20 years, processing legal information more effectively than current judges.
- Industrial strategies are expected to focus on expanding digital and key sectors like AI and cyber across ten additional tech hubs, necessitating new governance structures where experts can access the public domain.
- The emergence of "benefit companies" with legally specified public purposes alongside financial returns is a potential future ownership model, while the "hidden economy" may expand if regulations force labor out of the formal market, reducing participation rates.
- Political and public consternation over tech monopolies may compel governments to tighten regulations or consider public ownership, especially if current frameworks fail to address harms without pushing activity into the hidden economy.