Conference Presentation, Panel
Energy Transition to Energy Addition | Global Conference 2025
Milken InstituteDaniel Yergin, Mohammad Abunayyan, Mohamed Al Hammadi, Ana Cabral Gardner, Amos Hochstein, Vineet Mittal
- Global energy demand is projected to grow significantly driven by cloud computing, AI, and hyperscaler needs, potentially accounting for 10% of total energy demand by 2030 and reaching 30% within five years.
- In the United States, significant future power investment is expected to focus on natural gas to meet rising demand, with natural gas investment for electric generation anticipated to increase contrary to previous decline expectations, despite short-term price challenges like the $59 WTI level.
- The U.S. nuclear sector faces a window of opportunity estimated at 15 to 16 months, with efficiency gains expected when scaling from one to four units, though a greenfield mine in the U.S. may require at least 14 years to market.
- Regulatory simplification in the U.S. is seen as a catalyst for "enormous" energy investment, with private capital availability dependent on the government fulfilling its regulatory role.
- India plans to add 300 gigawatts of solar and wind capacity over the next five years, targeting 60 to 80 gigawatts of operational annual capacity, with levelized costs expected to become competitive with Middle Eastern nations by 2027.
- India aims to provide firm, dispatchable, round-the-clock green power by 2027 using an AI platform to integrate solar, wind, and storage, alongside mandates for fertilizer and growing demand for green methanol and ammonia linked to IMO carbon pricing from 2028.
- Saudi Arabia projects that renewable or green energy will comprise 50% of its energy mix by 2030, with production of 4 gigawatts of wind energy and solar panel exports targeting 2027.
- Saudi Arabia intends to become a net exporter of renewable supply chain components and lead global green hydrogen production, with specific green hydrogen plants in Uzbekistan and Saudi Arabia scheduled to operate in November 2026.
- The UAE's nuclear reactors currently supply 25% of the country's energy mix, providing a 24/7 base load that complements renewable sources.
- Offshore solar, wind, and battery configurations are expected to become cheaper than conventional power in many locations due to significantly reduced battery costs, contributing to future dispatchable power capabilities.
- The grid is anticipated to require almost $20 trillion in global investment over the next decade to support demand, warning that reliance on single-source intermittent electricity carries risks similar to European grid failures.
- Natural gas remains essential for decarbonizing industry sectors where solar and wind are insufficient, such as trucks and buses, while green hydrogen is expected to play a dominant role within 10 to 20 years.
- Renewable energy additions are deemed necessary to maintain current demand levels, though most current projects remain demonstration-scale rather than fully economic until proven at scale.
- Lithium supply responses will likely involve both high-cost and low-cost materials, posing risks of artisanal mining issues if the industry migrates to a state with no standards.
- A low-carbon oil perspective may be more favorable than materials produced in a "race to the bottom" without standards, preventing the world from ending up worse off than the status quo.
- Demand for electrons from ultra-scalers is piling up and requires immediate action rather than waiting months or years for grid and generation solutions.
- Hydrogen is viewed as critical for industrial decarbonization, asserting that solar and wind alone are insufficient for certain heavy-duty applications.
- Investment in the U.S. nuclear industry is being pursued by technology providers and ultra-scalers, with optimism that early investment will secure a leading edge in nuclear technology.