Panel, Fireside Chat, Conference Presentation
Entertainment: Riding the Global Wave
- CBS global revenue is projected to increase from $500 million to $1.6 billion within seven or eight years, driven by buyer growth in Germany and expansion in Eastern Europe, Latin America, and Asia, with international growth expected to accelerate continuously in Latin America and Asia while the U.S. theatrical market remains stable.
- Media industry dynamics are anticipated to shift toward M&A activity as companies acquire rare assets to ensure survival, with the animated TV business from the DreamWorks deal expected to succeed and Comcast serving as a strong custodian through synergies in theme parks, distribution, and consumer products.
- The film business is predicted to evolve into a format business where popular movies are remade in local markets, potentially generating returns in regions like China and Brazil before formats return to the U.S., while a new Monster Universe franchise involving Tom Cruise and Alex Kurtzman is in development.
- Sports revenue is expected to remain the largest stream at CAA and grow organically through activities in Germany, the U.K., and China, with continued activity in China involving financing vehicles and talent representation.
- Diversity in storytelling is identified as a key driver of global success to match multidimensional audience demographics, exemplified by the expectation that "Straight Out of Compton" could achieve international assumptions 2x to 3x its baseline.
- Netflix is anticipated to continue taking risks on various content formats due to subscription economics, with CBS planning to launch a Star Trek original series on CBS All Access in January and Ariel potentially investing only if stock falls to approximately $4.
- Amazon is expected to become a meaningful player in television and movies, competing to lift the market, while digital advertising may fail to deliver the deep ROI of network television for large audiences.
- Consumer viewing habits are predicted to shift toward staying home to watch digital services, particularly among younger generations, potentially undermining the theatrical ecosystem if filmmakers move exclusively to Netflix.
- The theatrical experience is expected to become more expensive with nicer facilities to remain viable for specific film types, though home viewing and theatrical experiences will continue to coexist to serve different consumer needs.
- Future success is expected to rely on great characters and stories driving sequels and series similar to TV binge-watching, while the "autonomy" argument is overrated compared to collaborative input from executives.
- Distribution models are predicted to evolve with the "screening room" model remaining uncertain, the "skinny bundle" model becoming prevalent as consumers move away from 180-channel bundles, and a "frothy market" emerging for film and TV makers due to increased international buyers.
- The media industry is predicted not to fully know its form in the next decade, though a single CBS employee was added to China two years ago, resulting in an existing distribution outlet there.