Conference Presentation, Panel
Expanding Our Frontiers: How Manned Spaceflight Can Change Your Future
- Smart machines are projected to increasingly displace human labor, with concerns that the definition of a "honeymoon" may shift to include lunar travel within the next 15 years, while human spaceflight roles could become the final occupation remaining before machines achieve sufficient autonomy.
- Commercial crewed flights to Low Earth Orbit are anticipated around 2017, with SpaceX potentially reducing Earth orbit costs to half a million dollars if reusable rockets succeed, alongside expectations that private sector entities will drive future commercial space station development.
- Mission architectures for Mars operations are targeted for the mid-2030s, requiring five or six SLS launches (which hoped to fly in 2018) to complete the necessary payload delivery, utilizing a window of opportunity that opens every two years.
- A Mars mission profile involves a seven to eight month outbound trip, a year-long stay on or near Mars to await the return window, and an identical duration for the return leg, with colonization predicted as a possible outcome in the long term but potentially taking hundreds of years.
- Moon Express plans a robotic first mission costing under $50 million, followed by a second mission estimated at $10 million, with potential future robotic mission costs dropping to the $2–3 million range, leveraging exponential technology, modular approaches, and eventually 3D printed titanium rockets.
- Advanced propulsion methods, including ion and potential nuclear systems, are under development to support deep space exploration, though the deployment of a space elevator is not expected within the next 20 to 30 years due to current material constraints despite progress in nanomaterials.
- NASA intends to partner with companies like Moon Express to robotically verify lunar water resources for fuel, while traditional aerospace contractors are expected to merge with entrepreneurs and new microgravity research markets will emerge as non-aerospace companies recognize terrestrial space application advantages.
- Specific technical risks and biological factors include concerns that the Mars One concept's plant life could generate excess oxygen lethal to crew within 30 days of arrival, while the human body is expected to naturally evolve or morph over long terms to better suit lunar or Martian environments.
- Future innovations include non-invasive instruments for measuring intracranial pressure with benefits for terrestrial medicine, a belief that human settlement of the Moon or Mars is a natural evolution of humanity, and a prediction that the commercial space industry in 100 years will be unrecognizable to today's standards.