Expelling mistake: the costs of hardline immigration policy

Immigration and Political Sentiment in Rich Nations

• Historic Migration Surge: Approximately 15 million people moved to rich countries over the last three years, representing the largest surge in history.
  • Annual net migration figures include over 3 million to the US, over 1 million to Canada, and roughly 700,000 to Britain.
  • Key origin regions include Ukraine (war refugees), India, and sub-Saharan Africa.
• Shift in Public Opinion: There is a generalized decline in support for immigration across major economies.
  • In the US, over 50% of Americans now favor deporting all illegal immigrants, a sharp rise from roughly one-third in 2016.
  • Australian surveys indicate a significant drop in the share of citizens who believe migration levels are too low.
• Policy Responses and Political Rhetoric: Governments are increasingly cracking down on migration as a central campaign issue.
  • Canada: Cutting study permits by one-third to target "degree mills" used as entry points for workers rather than students.
  • US: New measures bar illegal border crossers from asylum; Donald Trump has proposed deporting 7.5 to 8 million undocumented people if re-elected.
  • Europe: France and Germany are accelerating deportation procedures; Denmark is discussing strict border closures for asylum seekers from Islamic countries.
• Economic Implications of Deportation:
  • Historical Precedent: Past mass deportations (e.g., Canada during the Depression, Uganda in the 1970s) resulted in high fiscal costs and economic chaos.
  • Current Economic Risks: Removing 7.5–8 million workers from the US economy would likely cause immediate labor shortages and disrupt entire industries.
  • Inflationary Pressures: While reduced migration may lower housing inflation in the short term (e.g., a 100,000-person reduction in net migration could lower rents by 1% in Australia), long-term labor shortages may drive up wages and increase prices for labor-intensive services like healthcare and hospitality.
• Long-Term Demographic Challenges:
  • Crackdowns on migration risk undermining innovation and productivity by preventing native-born workers from moving to more productive roles.
  • Aging populations in rich countries require migration to sustain the workforce and public finances, particularly in the healthcare sector.
  • The current high pace of migration (post-pandemic) has created social unrest and housing pressure, leading politicians to attempt a difficult balance between economic needs and social stability.

Online Dating Industry Decline and Pivot

• Market Contraction: Major dating platforms are experiencing significant deceleration in growth compared to the 2021 boom.
  • Match Group (owner of Tinder, Hinge) reported 4% year-on-year growth, down from 24% in 2021.
  • Bumble reported 3% growth, down from 25% in 2021.
• Drivers of User Fatigue:
  • Financial Barriers: The cost-of-living crisis has made users reluctant to pay for subscriptions that do not guarantee success.
  • Experience Degradation: Users report declining match quality (particularly men's behavior for women), boredom with the "swipe" mechanic, and exhaustion from non-committal conversations.
  • Addiction Concerns: A class action lawsuit alleges Match Group designed apps to maximize user addiction rather than facilitate successful matches; the company denies this.
  • Desire for Offline Connection: Post-pandemic, there is a cultural shift toward in-person meetings to avoid the "cringe" of digital interaction.
• Resilient Segments:
  • Niche Identity Apps: Platforms targeting specific demographics are outperforming generalist apps.
    • Grindr reports 50 chats per user per day, comparable to WhatsApp usage.
    • Match Group's portfolio for specific groups (gay men, single parents, Black/Latin/Christian singles) grew by 70%.
  • Emerging Markets: Niche apps like Mozz (for Muslims in the Middle East) are showing strong growth outside Western markets.
• Strategic Shifts:
  • Companies are rebranding to emphasize finding long-term love over casual dating.
  • New entrants and challenges are focusing on logistics, such as planning actual dates to reduce user burden.
  • Match Group is utilizing TikTok advertising to refresh its image among younger demographics.

Breaking (Breakdancing) Olympic Debut

• Olympic Introduction: Breaking makes its Olympic debut at the Paris Games as the sole new event, decided on by the International Olympic Committee to boost youth engagement.
  • Event will be held outdoors at Place de la Concorde featuring 32 competitors (16 men, 16 women).
  • It is confirmed as a one-off event; breaking will not return to the 2028 Los Angeles Games.
• Cultural Origins and Terminology:
  • The dance emerged in the Bronx during the 1970s within Black and Latino communities, originating alongside breakbeat music and hip-hop.
  • Practitioners prefer the term "breaking" or "breaking dance" over "breakdancing," which is associated with 1980s commercialization and "Breaksploitation" films.
  • Pioneers like DJ Kool Herc coined terms "B-Boy" and "B-Girl."
• Path to the Olympics:
  • The initial 1984 New York City Breakers proclamation was ignored until the World Dance Sport Federation (WDSF) lobbied for inclusion starting in the 1990s.
  • The WDSF, historically focused on ballroom, utilized breaking to address declining Olympic viewership, citing its visual appeal, lack of language barrier, and social media potential.
  • Objectivity was established during the 2018 Youth Olympics in Buenos Aires by creating formal judging criteria, a move initially controversial among breakers who value self-expression.
• Community Reception and Future Outlook:
  • Initial Skepticism: A 2017 petition accused the WDSF of using breaking as a "Trojan horse" to commercialize the culture and neglect its roots.
  • Current Optimism: Many breakers now view the Olympic platform as essential for securing corporate sponsorships, state funding, and viable professional careers, particularly in Europe and Asia where dance is state-supported.
  • Risk: There is ongoing concern regarding the potential for renewed commercialization and the loss of the dance's independent, underground ethos.