Panel, Conference Presentation
Feeding the Future: The Changing Landscapes of Food and Agriculture
Milken InstitutePaul Fribourg, Patrick Brown, John Hamer, Mehmood Khan, John Vikupitz, Selected, Ambassador Compson
- Global grain production and PepsiCo's food supply are projected to require a 40 to 50 percent increase over the next 20 to 30 years, driven by population growth in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia rather than the U.S. or northern Europe.
- A $4.5 trillion economic opportunity is identified for data science and technology in agriculture, with specific investments targeting small landholders in India, Ukraine, and Argentina.
- Significant regulatory and operational shifts are anticipated regarding gene-edited foods, including potential European labeling mandates for in-vitro DNA manipulation, while CRISPR-Cas9 technology is expected to transform the food system through collaboration with the USDA, NGOs, and universities.
- Netafim forecasts a boom in drip irrigation sales in California contingent on the return of droughts and is expanding operations into Africa, China, and South/Central America to address water scarcity and population growth.
- The food system faces critical biological and logistical challenges, including the spread of the fall armyworm in sub-Saharan Africa causing over $3 billion in damage, resistance rendering insecticides ineffective, and a projected increase in global hunger affecting two billion additional people.
- Blue River Technology aims to significantly reduce pesticide exposure via machine learning see-and-spray systems, while Monsanto's DroughtGard corn trait serves as a five-to-six-year-old insurance measure against drought in the Midwest.
- Alternative protein strategies include Pat Brown's proposal to harvest wild marine phytoplankton to feed humanity using only 2% of its productivity without irrigation, fertilizer, or pesticides, contrasting with the prediction that plant protein sources will differ significantly from current ones in 10 to 20 years.
- Current animal agriculture practices contribute to severe ecological and resource impacts, with the World Wildlife Fund noting that 45 percent of Earth's land is used for livestock, wild animal populations halved in 40 years, and a projected 50 percent increase in animal product demand over 30 years.
- PepsiCo is actively reformulating products to include low-calorie options in 12 countries and achieved a 50 percent reduction in water use and greenhouse gas emissions without yield loss in a five-year England pilot program.
- Infrastructure disparities create a food loss gap of 20 to 30 percent in Western Europe and North America versus 40 to 50 percent in Africa and Asia, while consumers currently show little engagement with scientific literature regarding GMO safety.
- The industry consensus emphasizes the necessity of deploying both new inventions and existing technologies to address challenges, with 45 percent of global land currently dedicated to animal food production despite sufficient caloric and protein yields from major crops like rice, corn, wheat, and soybeans to meet 2050 macronutrient needs.