Conference Presentation, Panel, Fireside Chat
Finance as a Force for Good
- Government intervention and stimulus are expected to continue creating a bifurcation between "haves and have-nots" in business, with Andrew Weinberg anticipating a large infrastructure bill supported by broad bipartisan backing, specifically for digital infrastructure, regardless of election outcomes.
- Fiscal stimulus packages are predicted to be substantial regardless of which party controls the White House or Senate, with Jeffrey Solomon estimating roughly "50 cents on the dollar" of this stimulus could flow into markets, cash, and liquid assets rather than spending, leading to asset reflation while goods inflation remains suppressed.
- In the event of a Biden victory with a Democratic Senate, Kate Barton forecasts significant tax code pivots including raising the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%, implementing a 15% tax on book income, and increasing taxes on high-income earners over "$400,000" to "39.6%," though the process remains subject to influence.
- A "$25 to $50 trillion wealth transfer" in the U.S. among family-owned businesses is anticipated to demonstrate resilience, while Andrew Weinberg projects family offices will continue growing as asset managers similar to institutional firms like CPP Investments.
- Global debt levels are expected to reach enormous figures, prompting Kate Barton to predict that tax codes will pivot from growth policies to revenue-raising measures to address this debt, with digitized tax administrations causing "interesting consequences" for taxpayers.
- Mark Machen projects that the "carbon trunk line" in Alberta, once at full capacity, will reduce carbon emissions equivalent to "all the cars on the road in Alberta," or approximately 2.4 million cars, handling about "50 million tons" of emissions annually.
- Governments are expected to increasingly stimulate technology innovation and the transition from a carbon-based to a low-carbon economy, with Mark Machen advocating for a price on carbon to accelerate this shift while warning against starving traditional carbon-based energy providers of capital.
- Reporting methodologies for climate risk are expected to consolidate from over 800 different ways down to a minimum number, utilizing frameworks like SASB and the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures to aid investors and companies.
- The pandemic is expected to cause more women to leave the workforce than men due to child care and school closure burdens, potentially reversing decades of gains in women's participation and negatively impacting long-term value creation and board decision-making.
- Companies that fail to treat inclusion and diversity as core business initiatives within a "decade" are predicted by Jeffrey Solomon to become obsolete, as the next generation is viewed as more tolerant and open-ended.
- Kate Barton anticipates a global trend of "green tax bills" and carbon taxes to encourage sustainability, alongside requirements for companies to report on taxes paid and vendor customer systems as part of World Economic Forum measures.
- Mark Machen expects that private ownership of infrastructure will direct more capital toward development, while open borders for capital, trade, and investment will benefit the global economy.
- Mark Machen identifies companies focused on product innovation, marketing, sales, talent, and R&D as those that will create the most value in the long term.
- Andrew Weinberg notes that while regulation establishes conduct and risk frameworks, tax subsidies and government incentives are necessary to solve capital goal alignment, such as in the electric vehicle sector, rather than forcing investments.
- Kate Barton predicts that finance will shift to focus on long-term value and societal good, including addressing carbon emissions and social injustices, rather than optimizing short-term returns alone.
- Andrew Weinberg expects trust and transparency to be restored, with the provision of "know-how" alongside capital to families, founders, and entrepreneurs in the middle market serving as the engine to pull the economy out of the pandemic.
- Jeffrey Solomon anticipates that once election clarity arrives, there will be a strong impetus to pass fiscal stimulus packages to avoid political obfuscation being viewed as "really bad."
- If the U.S. has a President Joe Biden and a Republican-controlled Senate, Jeffrey Solomon suggests the prospects for a big stimulus number seem "a lot less" than under full Democratic control, though he remains confident a package will emerge.