Flying Cars Have Arrived! eVTOL Panel: Archer, Joby, Wisk | All-In Summit 2024

Market Entry & Launch Timelines

• Joby Aviation aims to begin commercial passenger service in the UAE in late 2025.
• Joby's U.S. commercial launch is targeted for the fourth quarter of 2026.
• Archer Aviation plans to initiate commercial service in the UAE in late 2025, with U.S. operations following shortly after.
• Archer anticipates its first U.S. commercial flights in the first quarter of 2026.
• Boeing's Kitty Hawk subsidiary targets U.S. autonomous passenger certification by the end of the current year, noting a longer timeline than piloted counterparts.

Capital & Strategic Partnerships

• Archer has raised nearly $1.5 billion to date with a team of approximately 1,000 employees.
• Stellantis has invested nearly $300 million in Archer.
• United Airlines has ordered up to $1.5 billion worth of Archer's "Midnight" aircraft.
• Archer holds an industry-leading contract with the U.S. Air Force and delivered the first aircraft under this agreement.
• Archer's high-volume manufacturing facility in Georgia is scheduled to open later this year.
• Archer has established flight networks in Los Angeles connecting SoFi Stadium, USC, LAX, and surrounding areas.
• Southwest Airlines and Archer are collaborating on three-hour multimodal journey networks across California.
• The "Midnight" aircraft is designed to carry four passengers and achieve speeds up to 150 mph.
• The "Midnight" utilizes a transition mechanism where propellers move from vertical takeoff to horizontal wing-borne flight.

Regulatory Landscape & Certification

• Panelists suggest international markets, particularly the UAE and New Zealand, are currently more amenable to early eVTOL deployment than the U.S.
• Regulatory hurdles in the U.S. are attributed to "regulatory capture," legacy helicopter industry influence, and a lack of personnel at the FAA with expertise in novel autonomous systems.
• Former FAA Administrator Bill Nolan has joined Archer, and current Administrator Mike Whitaker previously worked in the eVTOL sector, signaling executive interest.
• The FAA is developing a new "Mosaic" certification process specifically for smaller aircraft (two-passenger capacity) to accelerate development.
• Panelists note that 30 million global scheduled flights in 2023 recorded zero accidents, contrasting with high accident rates in small aircraft and helicopter markets.
• China (e.g., Ehang, Autoflight) is advancing more rapidly due to a "more broad-leaning" regulatory pathway.
• Safety standards require rewriting regulations that currently mandate "pilot actions" for fully autonomous aircraft.
• The FAA has a disincentive structure where regulators face career risk for approving new technology if an accident occurs, but no reward for success.

Technology & Operational Specs

• Joby's aircraft feature six propellers with six motors, inverters, and battery packs to ensure massive redundancy.
• Current certification batteries provide 300 watt-hours per kilogram, nearly double the 170 Wh/kg available in 2009.
• Archer's design prioritizes 20 to 50-mile back-to-back missions with a maximum range of 100 miles.
• Archer utilizes commercial-off-the-shelf lithium-ion cells (e.g., from Molicel) for certification.
• Joby's acoustic target for takeoff and landing is below 45 decibels, with overflight noise also targeted below background city levels (approx. 65 dB).
• The technology aims to reduce noise significantly below the 80–100 dB levels of traditional helicopters and the 110 dB of jet engines.
• Autonomous flight requires ground-based supervision, sensor-based traffic detection/avoidance, and navigation capabilities without GPS reliance.
• Electric propulsion allows for slower propeller rotation, achieving 90% of the acoustic benefit before aerodynamic refinements.
• Aircraft are designed to handle turbulent conditions better than helicopters, with capabilities relevant to wildfire prevention and disaster relief.

Safety & Edge Cases

• Initial U.S. certification will not include flight in unknown icing conditions, limiting operations in heavy snow environments.
• Pilots on early commercial flights will monitor automated systems rather than manually fly, with manual control available for emergencies.
• The industry argues that autonomous eVTOLs could save lives by shifting travel from high-risk road transport (40,000 annual U.S. deaths) to air travel.
• Vortex ring state risks are mitigated through multi-rotor redundancy and the ability to tilt rotors forward for rapid recovery.
• The transition from vertical to horizontal flight is the most energy-intensive phase of the flight profile.
• Battery replacement cycles are optimized for 1,000 to 2,000 flight cycles to balance economics and environmental impact.

Future Vision & Economic Model

• The initial business model relies on "hero routes" (e.g., Manhattan to JFK) with dedicated vertiports in dense urban areas.
• Panelists compare the current eVTOL state to the automotive industry in the 1890s, necessitating a taxi-service model before private ownership becomes viable.
• Long-term goals include landing aircraft at residential properties once noise signatures drop sufficiently.
• The industry forecasts the potential for thousands of vehicles in dense routes within major cities, though replacing all current helicopter traffic will take decades.
• Operational costs are projected to decrease significantly compared to traditional helicopters due to simpler mechanics and shared pilot supervision across multiple aircraft.