Panel
For Better or Worse? Technology's Transformative Role in Developing Regions
Milken InstitutePaul Kedrosky, Joe Mucheru, Denis D. O'Brien, Hilton Romanski, Kentaro Toyama, Stephanie von Friedeburg, Ross Lajeunesse, Thomas Witt, Kate Ambrose, Samia Malham
- Kenya and Rwanda plan nationwide migrations from 2G to 4G/LTE, leveraging spectrum freed from analog-to-digital TV transitions and integrating fiber trunking into new road and power grid infrastructure to facilitate shared infrastructure models.
- Governments in emerging markets intend to subsidize devices and networks, expand digital literacy programs from children to teachers and parents, and utilize "e-citizen" style platforms to enhance government service accessibility, with Rwanda already reporting financial inclusion rising from 42% in 2008 to 89%.
- Connectivity growth is driven by mobile money adoption enabling solar power subscribers to increase, cost reductions in doing business, and credit scoring via mobile data, though experts note these outcomes depend on establishing an "analog foundation" of education and social capacity to avoid widening socioeconomic divides.
- The Internet of Things market is projected to reach $11 trillion by 2025, with 40% of this value in emerging markets, while connecting the next 1.5 billion people is estimated to require $450 billion in investment that combines broadband with utilities like water, energy, and roads.
- Unsustainable network investment in remote areas is anticipated unless a new revenue-sharing model is established with Over-The-Top (OTT) providers like Google and Facebook, as telcos face ad-blocking pressures that could reduce OTT revenue streams.
- Challenges include the inability of the private sector to solely fund broadband infrastructure, the risk that AI and robotics without regulatory and skills foundations will cause exclusion, and the potential for network-level ad-blocking to threaten web publisher sustainability.
- Specific business models like Loon balloons are expected to provide temporary rural connectivity where fiber is not economic, though physical infrastructure teams will eventually replace them with fiber or other pipes, while the US 120 million without internet access is targeted via infrastructure sharing and new business models.
- Future demand for online jobs is expected to rise once citizens possess devices and broadband, with 10 million jobs identified as available online, yet completion rates on educational platforms remain skewed toward the educated and employed, indicating the internet amplifies existing human forces rather than solving poverty alone.
- Legal and regulatory frameworks are expected to evolve to allow government partnerships with operators for OTT revenue sharing and to prevent illegal taxation or blocking of foreign services without specific international agreements, aiming for broadband treated as a utility with universal access.
- The long-term outlook suggests that while mobile penetration exceeds the human population, significant economic transformation requires resolving the digital divide through policy changes, infrastructure sharing, and addressing the lack of broadband awareness that keeps consumers on 2G networks.