Interview, Fireside Chat
Former head of MI6: Iran has the “upper hand” in the war | The Economist
- President Trump is expected to attempt reopening the Strait of Hormuz through military threats against Iranian power plants and diplomatic talks, a strategy arising from the U.S. losing the initiative approximately two weeks prior due to underestimating the task and Iranian resilience.
- The conflict is predicted to remain "globalized" rather than internationalized, enabling Iran to utilize horizontal escalation by firing rockets at targets within range to impose direct costs on the U.S. while maintaining leverage through the threat of an energy war.
- U.S. and Israeli operational options are viewed as "pretty limited and not great," while Iran retains the ability to intimidate oil tanker captains using only 10% of its initial drone stocks.
- Donald Trump's rhetoric framing the conflict as a "civilizational war" is expected to grant Iran greater staying power and the "whip hand," contrasting with U.S. counterparts.
- The Iranian regime is characterized as being in its "death throes" with long-term survival prospects considered low, yet the current war environment provides an extra lease of life by hindering opposition organization.
- Internal instability and hatred within Iran are forecast to persist for decades, with approximately 80% of the population expressing desire to sever ties with the theocratic regime.
- The regime's survival hinges on the 10% to 20% of the population controlling the military, who are expected to continue brutalizing the population empowered by the current situation.
- Leadership transitions include General Vahidi, a former Quds Force commander, assuming the role of new IRGC chief amidst significant turnover, including the death of the SSIS chief.
- The theocracy is projected to effectively end with the death of Ali Khamenei, after which his successor will hold less power, resulting in a new structure resembling an IRGC-run junta with a figurehead leadership.
- The IRGC is anticipated to remain ruthless but potentially more corrupt due to investments in a black economy created by sanctions, which could foster long-term pragmatism.
- The probability of the regime maintaining operations indefinitely is considered low following the events of the January uprising, though the appointment of Ayatollah Khomeini's son, described as a pragmatic individual, had previously offered a missed opportunity for shift.
- A potential democratic transition depends on whether Masoud Pazeshkian speaks more freely, which could allow the 80% of the population that has "had enough" to prevail demographically and electorally.
- Current leadership faces potential "buyer's remorse" regarding the appointment of Mushtaba, a possibility that could signal a future change in direction if reformist voices emerge.