Interview, Other
France’s Economic Environment for 2021
- French GDP decline for 2021 is forecast between 8.5% and 9.2%, with a December run-rate decline of 7%, contrasting with the 30% drop seen during the initial lockdown.
- Continued economic drag is observed in travel, culture, and hospitality sectors due to partial lockdowns, though corporate default trends remain significantly below 2019 levels.
- The French government deployed approximately $130 billion in state-guaranteed loans to over 650,000 companies, a measure credited with stabilizing the market.
- Goldman Sachs expects French GDP to return to 2019 levels sometime in 2022, contingent on the sanitary situation and the management of variants like the UK strain.
- Among the top five European economies, France's GDP decline is projected to be lower than Italy, Spain, and the UK, with only Germany expected to perform better.
- Small businesses have received significant support, accounting for 40% of state-guaranteed loans directed to firms with fewer than 10 employees.
- Business creation in France has recovered to record levels, with 80,000 new businesses established monthly following an initial drop in March and April 2020.
- French tech funding reached over €5 billion in 2020, a 7% year-over-year increase driven by growth in digital, life sciences, and clean tech sectors.
- Goldman Sachs launched its "10,000 Small Businesses" program in France in partnership with ESSEC in late October 2020, targeting a cohort of 70 entrepreneurs starting in March 2021.
- Corporate M&A activity in France rose 8% in 2020 compared to the previous year, with a notable increase in cross-border outbound deals in the €5–7 billion range.
- While sectors hardest hit by the crisis are focused on liquidity management and leverage reduction, there is a growing strategic appetite among French corporates for offensive M&A to strengthen capital structures.
- The French IPO market is dominated by corporate carve-outs, with significant anticipated growth from tech IPOs and the rising adoption of SPACs and alternative vehicles.
- Goldman Sachs Paris headcount has doubled over the past three years and is projected to double again over the next three years, evolving into a hub for continental European clients.
- All divisions are now represented onshore in Paris, with the office relocating to a new facility in 2022 capable of hosting 300–350 seats to support expanded operations.
- The podcast was recorded on January 14, 2021, and all economic forecasts reflect conditions as of that date.