Interview, Fireside Chat
From “The Way Forward" Conference: Dr. Stephen J. Corwin, President and CEO, New York-Presbyterian
- Anticipates a likely second pandemic wave in New York and other U.S. epicenters, with ICU demand already rising in Houston and Phoenix, necessitating a cooperative approach to prevent hospital systems from being overwhelmed.
- Projects peak crisis PPE consumption will surge from a pre-pandemic baseline of 4,000 masks daily to 100,000 masks daily, driving a strategic shift toward onshore manufacturing and increased stockpiling to reduce reliance on inadequate Chinese KN95 supplies.
- Plans to permanently maintain approximately 650 ICU beds at New York Presbyterian (increased from 450 pre-COVID) and secure at least a 60-day PPE supply for peak usage, with accelerated contracts ensuring availability starting in November.
- Forecasts organizational financial losses exceeding one billion dollars for the current year and extending into 2021 or until an effective vaccine or therapy is found, with caution that many institutions, especially safety nets, may lack the required liquidity.
- Estimates in-hospital mortality rates at roughly 20 percent overall, rising to nearly 50 percent for patients requiring ventilators, with a high mortality risk specifically for older individuals, frontline workers, and people of color if infections become rampant.
- Expects treatment to remain primarily supportive care despite improved disease understanding, with a pessimistic outlook for vaccine availability before the end of the current year and a target for confirmation only by early 2021, noting the historical four-year benchmark for the fastest vaccine approval (mumps).
- Predicts healthcare worker vaccination will likely need to be voluntary due to safety and efficacy uncertainties, raising ethical concerns regarding emergency use authorization without known profiles, while also expressing concern over the psychological toll on staff facing a potential second surge.
- Questions the structural viability of the current healthcare business model that relies on elective commercial profits to offset Medicare/Medicaid losses, while monitoring numbers closely to safely reopen the organization.