Interview
Frugality vs ambition, longtermism, and mental health under pressure | Will MacAskill (2022)
- Will McCaskill plans to write the book What We Owe the Future focusing on long-termism, population ethics, value lock-in, and moral contingency, with a dedicated writing period scheduled from March 2020 to December 2021 supported by a team of full-time researchers in climate and war, plus a fact-checker.
- The book aims to refute the economic inevitability of slavery's abolition, arguing instead that specific campaigns and the booming slave trade (valued at 5% of Britain's GDP) were decisive, while noting that agricultural mechanization did not occur in the US South until the 20th century and technology could theoretically reduce slavery costs.
- McCaskill anticipates publishing a full episode later in the year to discuss the book and notes that the prospect of errors in the work is a significant concern despite rigorous fact-checking.
- The author intends to challenge the idea of inevitable value convergence, arguing that moral views are highly contingent and that technological stagnation during high extinction risk periods could disproportionately increase overall extinction probability.
- McCaskill highlights a research gap regarding recovery chances after 99% population catastrophes, suggesting these are more likely than 100% extinction events and could significantly alter long-term prioritization, potentially encouraging readers to dedicate 10 years to specific questions.
- Communication strategies regarding existential risk depend on probability estimates; if AI extinction risk within 20 years exceeds 90%, direct discussion is preferred, whereas lower probabilities necessitate prioritizing the dissemination of the long-termist model, as current risk messaging does not resonate well with the general public.
- McCaskill expects to return to a sustainable work state after a sprint for the Future Fund, citing a shift in mindset regarding suffering and happiness that improved his well-being to the level of the happiest 10% of his peer group.
- A trigger action plan prioritizes mental health over productivity when feelings of inadequacy arise, and McCaskill anticipates mixed emotions regarding an upcoming New Yorker profile involving interviews with his personal and professional circle.
- Influence efforts focus on high-impact "outlier" successes, such as convincing Sam Bankman-Fried to earn to give, to drive the "culture of ambition" necessary for maximizing expected value in a fat-tailed impact distribution.
- Future Fund strategies prioritize total impact over marginal cost-effectiveness, allowing funding for scalable projects even if they are less efficient per dollar, while aiming to avoid mission drift, extravagance, and the persistence of underperforming charities.
- The Future Fund expects to receive 1,800 applications with a goal to respond within 14 days, maintaining a "regranting program" to prevent power consolidation and a focus on high-risk, high-reward opportunities rather than patient philanthropy.
- Grant-making priorities include bio-risk interventions like masks and far ultraviolet radiation, rejecting biomedical responses to low-probability worst-case pandemics, and explicitly funding EA criticism and research into widely held beliefs.
- Movement building yields are expected to be around 30% annually, significantly higher than financial returns, driving a strategy of spending money immediately rather than preserving capital for future use.
- McCaskill expects to advise on the Future Fund's early hires, scope, and culture, differing from Nick Beckstead by weighting past track records more heavily and aligning more closely with Sam Bankman-Fried on broad long-termism than on the spectrum of caution versus action.
- Personal future plans include mentoring youth, potentially forming a research institute for deep worldview formation, or engaging in AI research within two to three years, alongside ongoing research into historical claims regarding the potato's impact on global population.
- Rob Wiblin plans to host a conversation with expert forecasters on the ADK After Hours feed to discuss the prediction of interstate conflict.