Interview, Fireside Chat, Conference Presentation
Funding the AI Supercycle: IPOs, Liquidity & Growth | Nelson Griggs, Nasdaq | RAISE Summit 2026
- The IPO window is projected to remain open and accessible for a significant duration in the near future, with a pipeline expected to be highly diverse, blending mega-cap entities with broad-based interest.
- Investor receptivity is anticipated to stay strong given 25 years of overall market performance, with public markets holding approximately $150 trillion in global liquidity to support mega-cap capital needs.
- The AI sector is forecast to experience dramatic IPO activity driven by high capital requirements, with a backlog of projects and a projected AI spending reach of $8 trillion by 2031.
- Transition times for companies to go public are expected to remain below the historical 17-year average, particularly for the AI sector, while the average interval between tender offers has dropped from 900 days to 150 days.
- Success thresholds for technology IPOs are rising, requiring revenue of north of $200 million ARR, with meaningful deals potentially needing $500 million in annual recurring revenue.
- Retail participation in U.S. public markets is predicted to grow from 10% pre-COVID to 25%, while approximately 65% of capital in the valley is expected to flow into AI and chip stocks.
- Mid-cap and growth companies are expected to maintain access to capital, supported by roughly 150 U.S. mutual funds restricted to mid-cap investments seeking sustainable growth.
- SK Hynix is predicted to complete a U.S. listing with an ADR value of roughly $29 billion, potentially becoming the second-largest IPO of all time, with significant retail interest due to a lack of sector peers.
- OpenAI and Anthropic are expected to list soon, potentially joining SpaceX to form a group of IPOs roughly equivalent in size to all energy companies currently on the NASDAQ index.
- SpaceX is expected to be included in the NASDAQ 100 within 15 days of trading via fast-entry rules for companies reaching a $100 billion market cap, limiting initial index ownership to less than 1%.
- IPO volume is forecast to be very strong in September, October, and November of the current year, with billion-dollar offerings expected to continue into the next year, though some AI companies may delay offerings to avoid peer competition.
- European technology companies are expected to increasingly pursue U.S. primary or dual listings to access higher valuations, while the Stockholm market is anticipated to remain a success story due to its equity culture and pension investment rules.
- Long-term secular trends in technology growth and AI build-out are expected to persist despite short-term sector rotations, with U.S. market multiples currently at 25 to 26 times supporting a robust outlook.
- Market volatility is expected to remain a factor, though the market has shown resilience through "buy the dip" behavior over the last two years despite absorbing shocks.
- The SEC is expected to continue developing rules to enhance disclosures and make it easier for investors to access private markets, potentially creating an easier on-ramp to public markets.
- AI infrastructure build-out is expected to be utilized immediately as it comes online, supporting revenue backlogs and leveraging supply the minute it is available.
- Material increases in company size are required for future IPO success, with technology firms needing to exceed previous benchmarks to be considered meaningful to the market.
- The NASDAQ 100 fast-entry adjustment is expected to provide meaningful liquidity to large IPOs without creating excessive ownership concentration, specifically limiting initial index ownership to less than 1%.
- Approximately 65 percent of the money in the valley is predicted to flow into AI and chip stocks, with expectations for continued IPOs in this sector.
- European technology companies are expected to increasingly prioritize U.S. primary listings or dual listings to access higher valuations and liquidity compared to local European exchanges.
- The Stockholm market is predicted to maintain its status as a European success story for capital raising due to its strong equity culture and pension rules allowing investment in growth companies.
- The IPO pipeline is expected to be very strong in September, October, and November of the current year, with billion dollar IPOs anticipated to continue into the next year.
- Some companies with significant AI exposure are expected to delay their public offerings until the next year to avoid competing directly with peers like SpaceX.
- Market volatility is expected to remain a factor, with the market having absorbed a lot of shocks but showing resilience through buy the dip behavior over the last two straight years.
- The U.S. market valuation is expected to remain near the high end of averages, with multiples currently at 25 to 26 times, which supports an incredibly robust next couple of years if the economic environment holds.
- Long-term secular trends in technology growth and AI build-out are expected to persist despite short-term sector rotations between value and growth.
- Capital is expected to remain available for mid-cap and growth companies, with 150 mutual funds in the U.S. restricted to mid-cap investments and seeking sustainable growth stories to drive alpha.
- Public markets are expected to be very robust and able to handle the large needs of the mega caps without necessarily crowding out other companies.
- The average time for companies to transition from private to public is projected to remain shorter than the historical 17-year average, specifically for the AI sector.
- Future IPO success is expected to require material increases in size compared to previous years, with technology companies needing a benchmark of north of 200 million ARR and really 500 million to be considered meaningful.
- Goldman Sachs is predicted to project that AI spending will reach a region of eight trillion dollars by 2031 to sustain build-out and investment.
- Public markets are expected to possess ample liquidity, estimated at globally about $150 trillion in value, to meet the capital needs of mega-cap companies.
- Retail participation in U.S. public markets is predicted to continue growing, having risen from about 10% pre-COVID to now it's 25%.
- Capital is expected to remain available for mid-cap and growth companies, with 150 mutual funds in the U.S. restricted to mid-cap investments and seeking sustainable growth stories to drive alpha.
- Public markets are expected to be very robust and able to handle the large needs of the mega caps without necessarily crowding out other companies.
- The average time between tender offers for private companies is predicted to continue decreasing, having dropped from about 900 days two years ago to about 150 days last year.
- The SEC is expected to continue developing rules that make it easier for investors to participate in the private markets through enhanced disclosures, potentially creating an easier on-ramp to public markets.
- AI build-out is expected to utilize infrastructure as it is built, with supply being leveraged the minute it is online, supporting projected revenue backlogs.
- The NASDAQ 100 is expected to include companies like SpaceX within 15 days of beginning trading due to fast-entry rules for scale companies reaching a hundred billion market cap.
- The fast-entry adjustment is expected to provide meaningful liquidity to IPOs without creating excessive ownership concentration, limiting initial index ownership to less than 1%.
- OpenAI and Anthropic are expected to potentially list in the near future, with the three major AI companies (including SpaceX) potentially representing an IPO size roughly equivalent to the size of like all the energy companies on the index.
- SK Hynix is predicted to complete a U.S. listing with an ADR value of at you know 29 billion dollars, becoming the second largest IPO of all time.
- Significant retail participation is expected for the SK Hynix listing due to the lack of other peers in the specific chip stock sector.
- Approximately 65 percent of the money in the valley is predicted to flow into AI and chip stocks, with expectations for more IPOs in this sector.
- European technology companies are expected to increasingly prioritize U.S. primary listings or dual listings to access higher valuations and liquidity compared to local European exchanges.
- The Stockholm market is predicted to maintain its status as a European success story for capital raising due to its strong equity culture and pension rules allowing investment in growth companies.
- The IPO pipeline is expected to be very, very strong in September, October, and November of the current year, with billion dollar IPOs anticipated to continue into the next year.
- Some companies with significant AI exposure are expected to delay their public offerings until the next year to avoid competing directly with peers like SpaceX.
- Market volatility is expected to remain a factor, with the market's kind of absorbed a lot of shocks but showing resilience through buy the dip behavior over the last Two straight years.
- The U.S. market valuation is expected to remain near the high end of averages, with multiples currently at 25 26 times, which supports an incredibly robust next couple years if the economic environment holds.
- Long-term secular trends in technology growth and AI build-out are expected to persist despite short-term sector rotations between value and growth.