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Get your Strait facts: China’s quiet Taiwan push

  • Approximately 70 countries have officially endorsed China's sovereignty claims over Taiwan and unification efforts without specifying peaceful means, with the vast majority of these adoptions occurring within the last 18 months and accounting for about 97% of signatories based in the Global South.
  • These endorsing nations often rely on China for critical natural resources or infrastructure projects via the Belt and Road Scheme, creating a scenario where China aims to shield itself from Western sanctions by portraying such endorsements as a "green light" for potential military force.
  • While American officials do not expect an imminent Chinese military assault, US intelligence indicates President Xi Jinping has ordered the armed forces to be capable of invading Taiwan by 2027, driving concerns regarding the next few years.
  • The diplomatic landscape is expected to shift significantly compared to the 2022 UN vote on Russia, with the West likely struggling to secure UN condemnation of Chinese aggression or support for sanctions due to China's expanded influence in the Global South.
  • China seeks to ensure its actions are seen as legitimate internationally and may rally UN supporters in the event of conflict, though current claims of universal support are exaggerated as it still faces diplomatic isolation in some areas.
  • External factors include the potential for the US to leverage diplomatic pressure to downgrade relations with specific countries, similar to actions taken against Panama, and the ongoing US provision of defensive weapons to Taiwan.
  • In a separate legal matter, there is a fundamental concern that the conviction of Lucy Letby is unsafe, based on panel findings that medical evidence does not support murder and suggests deaths resulted from natural causes or poor care.
  • A panel led by Dr. Xu Li attributed specific injuries to traumatic births or infections like sewage leaks, and these findings have been sent to the Criminal Cases Review Commission (CCRC), though successful referrals from this body are incredibly rare.
  • Legal experts express a distinct possibility of a miscarriage of justice but note that while the case could be appealed due to its high profile, the outcome of the Court of Appeal remains uncertain and the process will likely bring renewed distress to victims' families.
  • Financially, the global football industry saw record revenues of 11 billion euros for the top 20 clubs in the 2023-24 season, with stadiums diversifying into non-sport events and star players leveraging brand equity in later careers, despite pay slices shrinking relative to earlier generations like the 1970s.