Global Capital Markets | Global Conference 2026

Strategic Outlook and Geopolitical Context

• UAE Resilience and Investment Strategy:

  • The UAE government and Mubadala (>$100B AUM) view the last eight weeks of regional conflict as a catalyst for community cohesion rather than a strategic disruption.
  • Waleed Al-Saad noted the armed forces intercepted 94% of incoming projectiles, citing societal resilience as a core differentiator.
  • Investment strategy remains focused on long-term themes (AI, energy, healthcare) with a projected V-shaped recovery similar to post-GFC and post-COVID eras.
  • Mubadala refuses to be defined by recent volatility, emphasizing decades of stability and a "clear long-term vision" as the primary driver for capital allocation.

• Global Economic Divergence:

  • US Economy: Remains the primary beneficiary of the current cycle due to energy independence and strong consumer spending; the economy is "insulated" from the energy price shocks impacting Europe.
  • Europe: Faces headwinds from energy price volatility and inflation but retains strategic opportunities in renewable energy, healthcare, and AI startups underpinned by strong basic science (e.g., France, UK).
  • Asia: China is doubling down on high-end manufacturing rather than shifting to consumer-led growth; Korea and China have benefited significantly from the memory chip price surge.

Capital Markets and Massive Capital Expenditure (CapEx)

• Unprecedented Investment Scale:

  • A "massive CapEx boom" is underway, with companies announcing $750 billion in spending in a single week, projected to grow into the trillions over the coming years.
  • Investment Grade (IG) Dominance: Net IG issuance is projected to exceed $1.1 trillion this year, surpassing net issuance in the U.S. Treasury market for the first time.
  • Funding Mechanisms: Capital formation will be multi-faceted, drawing from excess cash flow, public IG markets, and private credit, requiring an "open architecture" approach across diverse marketplaces.
  • Asset Shift: A notable trend involves a transition from asset-light to asset-heavy business models, particularly in AI infrastructure and energy.

• Private vs. Public Markets:

  • Private markets are filling critical gaps left by traditional banking, with private credit and equity growing to disintermediate traditional lenders.
  • IPO Pipeline: Despite the rise of private giants (e.g., OpenAI's $122B private raise), large companies remain committed to eventual public listings; however, prolonged private residency is becoming more common due to regulatory burdens on public firms.
  • Retail Access: Mechanisms to allow retail investors (including 401ks) access to private markets are evolving, though concerns remain regarding fees, liquidity, and litigation risks.

Technology, AI, and Labor Market Dynamics

• Productivity and Employment:

  • AI deployment is expected to create a "productivity step function," driving efficiency and operating leverage for companies, though the net impact on employment remains uncertain.
  • Blue-Collar Boom: A significant surge in blue-collar employment is anticipated over the next five years, driven by physical AI infrastructure, robotics, and energy grid construction (e.g., QTS data centers expanding workforce from 10,000 to 40,000).
  • White-Collar Impact: While AI may reduce labor intensity in transaction processing and legal services, it also creates new industries and capacity for small/medium enterprises to expand into new markets.

• Infrastructure and Real Estate:

  • Energy Demand: The AI build-out (chips, data centers, cooling, power) is driving a "full stack" demand for energy, necessitating massive expansion in natural gas, renewables, and nuclear power.
  • Real Estate Recovery: Commercial real estate is positioned for a cyclical recovery due to a 50-75% drop in new construction over the last four years, falling interest rates, and a shift in investor preference toward "hard assets."
  • Office Sector: While white-collar office demand may shift due to AI, high-quality buildings in major cities (NYC, London, SF) remain in demand; however, the sector faces risks of oversupply in lower-tier properties.

Fiscal Challenges and Long-Term Risks

• Debt Sustainability:

  • The U.S. national debt has exceeded $40 trillion; while the economy is growing, long-term sustainability relies on productivity-driven growth to offset entitlement costs.
  • European Fragility: Europe faces unique challenges regarding energy sovereignty and potential fragmentation, contrasting with the U.S. ability to scale domestic energy production.
  • Reckoning: Policymakers are warned that debt growth without productive investment will eventually require tough choices on entitlements and spending.

• Inequality and the "American Dream":

  • 40% of Americans lack direct economic stakes in the market; initiatives like child savings accounts (matching funds) and expanded IRA schemes aim to democratize wealth building.
  • Housing affordability remains a critical bottleneck, with median home prices ($400k) and down payments ($30k) acting as significant barriers for first-time buyers.

Forward-Looking Statements and Decisions

• Investment Themes:
  • UAE/Mubadala: Will continue to allocate capital to the US (44% of portfolio) and key Asian markets (China, India, Japan, Korea) with a focus on AI, energy, and healthcare.
  • Global Shifts: Expect a move toward "evergreen" vehicles for infrastructure and real estate to align with the long-term nature of asset ownership and aging demographics.
  • Open Architecture: Collaboration across public/private, lender/borrower, and domestic/global lines is essential to fund the trillions in upcoming CapEx.
• Market Predictions:
  • Inflation is expected to remain manageable away from oil prices, supported by productivity gains.
  • The public REIT market is predicted to outperform the S&P in the coming years as fundamentals improve.
  • Nuclear energy and grid modernization are identified as critical enablers for the future AI and energy ecosystem.