Conference Presentation, Panel
Global Investment Outlook: Markets, Geopolitics, and the New Capital Cycle | Asia Summit 2026
Milken InstituteHaslinda Amin, Adena Friedman, Jenny Johnson, Tony Minella, Pandu Sjahrir, Bill Winters
- Global bond yields are projected to remain elevated, with 30-year yields approaching 6% and 10-year yields at 5.3%, potentially rising slightly in the near term as the Federal Reserve implements a rate hike in December driven by data and a hawkish stance despite cooling jobs reports.
- Oil prices are forecast to stay above $100 a barrel, specifically reaching $105 today, while inflation in the U.S. economy is expected to remain sticky alongside a resilient consumer.
- U.S. credit is anticipated to yield 9% to 11%, potentially reaching 15% to 20% with leverage, whereas business models reliant on low yields, particularly in private equity, are expected to struggle and require structural adjustments.
- Indonesia's public equity market is viewed as highly attractive for the next 12 months with a focus on domestic investment and anticipated double-digit U.S. dollar returns, while the country's energy sector value is expected to rise significantly.
- The technology sector is compared to the 2020-2021 environment, with AI driving massive economic transformation, a surge in biotech interest, and sustained demand for energy and chips, though IPO market health depends on investor appetite despite a robust pipeline.
- AI integration is expected to evolve from current efficiency gains to new revenue applications over the next five years, with banks increasing AI agents from 1,000 to 100,000 and performing unimaginable functions within two years, necessitating core foundational platforms and governance layers.
- AI service costs are predicted to shift usage toward models 70% to 90% less expensive, such as DeepSeek or Kimi, while organizations will leverage multiple LLMs and potentially create proprietary environments rather than relying solely on hyperscalers.
- A bifurcated world may emerge over the next six to 12 months between the traditional consumer and a "super intelligence" economy, with productivity gains from super intelligence expected to be deflationary over a 20-year horizon, though the current infrastructure build-out remains inflationary.
- Supply chains are expected to shift toward intra-Asian corridors and rebuild domestically, which is inflationary compared to previous globalization, while countries seek greater control over energy sources and digital infrastructure.
- Risks include societal rejection and political pushback, with voter sentiment on AI becoming a hot-button issue in U.S. midterms and globally, alongside potential disruption from U.S.-China geopolitical conflict, unchecked budget deficits, and an AI bubble bursting in specific pockets.
- Investment strategy is expected to prioritize companies generating results based on price to earnings, dividend yield, and free cash flow, with graduates pivoting from traditional finance to firms like Anthropic or Palantir, while active management becomes critical for identifying winners.
- Primary contenders in the super intelligence race include OpenAI, Tesla, and SpaceX, with only one potentially emerging as the major winner, while health sciences companies utilizing AI for drug pipelines are expected to outcompete other sector participants.