Conference Presentation, Panel
Global Overview with Opening Remarks
Milken InstituteZanny Minton Beddoes, Willem Buiter, Sir Paul Collier, Larry Hatheway, Ana Palacio, Paul Collier
- The Milken Institute session aims to broaden global prosperity by expanding access to capital, improving health, and enhancing job creation, supported by 722 guides in bright blue and white attire, the "MI Events app" for navigation and social connection, and on-screen panel schedules at breakout session conclusions.
- Zannie Mitten-Bettos anticipates no positive developments regarding political challenges in Syria, the South China Sea, US superpower status, or European refugee migration, while expecting voter frustration with the status quo to drive support for populist figures such as Marine Le Pen, Jeremy Corbyn, Donald Trump, and Bernie Sanders.
- Willem Buiter forecasts a global recession next year driven by a breakdown of the export-led growth model in emerging markets, specifically predicting China must shift from overinvestment to domestic consumption, a transition hindered by the infeasibility of debt restructuring and helicopter money, with Chinese data deemed unreliable and growth rates potentially settling between 2.5% and 5%.
- Buiter predicts a retreat from globalization due to fearful nationalism, anticipates a Chinese recession to growth phase where open unemployment must rise to trigger necessary responses, and expects robotics and AI to displace working-class jobs, necessitating negative income tax or guaranteed minimum income to prevent societal paralysis.
- Larry Hathaway projects that advanced economies including the US, UK, Germany, and Japan are at inflection points for healing capital and labor returns, forecasting wage inflation in the UK and labor market tightness in the US and Japan to restore equal income distribution, with political benefits arising from these labor trends to counter populism.
- Hathaway expects China's economic challenges will persist through the remainder of the decade, while Europe may find leadership through adversity and crises such as its border situation and the Iranian agreement, potentially validated by Angela Merkel's response to immigration.
- Paul Collier declares the benign decade for frontier economies has ended, requiring management of short-term shocks from reduced export revenues, and warns that repeated crises indicate a failure to learn past lessons, though future decades may offer non-resource-based opportunities if a narrative of opportunity is established.
- Collier notes that Nigeria's fiscal adjustment to raise non-oil taxation is economically viable but politically difficult, warning that failure to reform could lead to foreign exchange rationing and rent-seeking, while advocating for governments to borrow heavily to fund public investment projects like Crossrail given the prevalence of excess savings and low interest rates.
- Anna Palacio asserts that the world is undergoing a mutation where national states are no longer the sole actors, leading to confusion over power distribution and rendering the Washington consensus obsolete, predicting a new world order comprising diverse entities from Daesh to multinationals to individuals, while dismissing the immediate replacement of the US or the viability of BRICS.
- Palacio predicts the EU construction is no longer irreversible and anticipates that a British exit will trigger a Scottish independence referendum within two weeks, with potential further splits in Wales and Northern Ireland and the secession of Greater London, while warning that Merkel's suspension of the Dublin framework risks creating division between Hungary and the Czech Republic despite a potentially positive shock effect.
- Palacio and Buiter hold divergent views on immigration; Palacio fears it will exacerbate EU division, while Buiter expects unavoidable migration from the Maghreb, Sahel, Africa, and the Middle East to revitalize Europe, fearing that failure to manage this influx will reduce Europe to a "lightweight" incapable of leadership, whereas Collier warns that unmanaged mass immigration will weaken Europe's social capital and shared identity.
- Buiter describes Europe as politically a "lightweight" unable to provide leadership until acting collectively, while Collier emphasizes the need for "governance" as the central issue, with Palacio predicting that climate change discussions in Paris will see the US take the front line, contrasting with the political challenges regarding migration and the end of the global status quo.