Panel
Global Risk
Milken InstituteJim Brooks, General Wesley Clark, Ambassador Hussein Haqqani, Ambassador Paul Wolfowitz
- General Wesley Clark outlines a sophisticated Russian military plan to seize Crimea, which is already under control, and advance into Eastern and Southern Ukraine to reclaim military industrial complexes, utilizing special forces and anticipating Russian intervention as "peacekeepers" if the Ukrainian interim government loses control, with specific dates of May 9–11 identified as potential action windows and a three-mile isthmus cited as an economic lifeline requiring Russian control.
- Vladimir Putin is described as viewing Ukraine as a necessary first step to reassembling the Soviet Union with Belarus and Kazakhstan, employing a "19th-century template" in the 21st century, while the West is urged to deter this by strengthening Ukrainian defenses, noting that six Ukrainian brigades with U.S. experience in Iraq and Afghanistan possess significant fighting capability despite previous intelligence doubts.
- The global consequences of the conflict are framed as a litmus test for American resolve regarding China, Pacific allies, and other observers, with concerns that Western inaction could embolden Al Qaeda and other Islamist extremists who are waiting for a perceived U.S. withdrawal, while Russia's actions may inspire similar ethnic minority protections in the Baltic states or Eastern Europe.
- U.S. policy is characterized by the absence of a defense treaty with Ukraine and a legal inability to enforce border treaties, creating a dilemma where the U.S. must choose between diplomatic settlement and military engagement, though some speakers suggest arming "decent people" in Syria or supporting Ukraine similar to Finland's historical resistance to Stalin could signal U.S. capacity to act.
- China is projected to continue challenging U.S. dominance, aiming to regain its historical centrality by building military capacity including four aircraft carriers by 2019, which, alongside submarines and ballistic missiles, could prevent U.S. air, sea, or space dominance in the Philippines or island chain crisis scenarios, potentially swaying the Philippines toward China's $3.5 billion monthly remittances.
- The stability of the post-WWII U.S. security architecture is expected to erode due to overcommitment in the Middle East and troop withdrawals from Europe, exemplified by the description of current U.S. presence in Poland as a "tripwire force" of airborne infantry without armor, though a capable adversary could theoretically trigger a rapid expansion to a dozen additional aircraft carriers by 2019.
- In the realm of energy, the U.S. is expected to regain global leadership power by unlocking its energy sector through fracking and utilizing Mexico as a major energy partner, with a major LNG export terminal projected to go online in 2015 and floating liquefaction plants on Mexico's west coast potentially accelerating LNG exports to the China market.
- The Middle East and Muslim world face a potential "new hundred years war" driven by sectarian Shia-Sunni divides, with Iran expected to free itself from sanctions to operate on two levels: engaging in business with the West and utilizing militant groups, while Pakistan and Yemen remain "ungoverned spaces" where nuclear possession enables sub-conventional conflict and terrorism.
- Demographic and economic shifts are expected to drive instability in emerging markets, with the global middle class growing from 2 to 3 billion people demanding better governance, while Brazil risks Arab Spring-style disruptions during the World Cup due to infrastructure challenges, whereas Mexico is on a positive track driven by labor and oil reforms.
- India is projected to be a rising power with a billion-plus population, where Narendra Modi could lead economic liberalization and infrastructure investment, potentially overcoming his controversial image to address the "jihadi game" with Pakistan, though the India-Pakistan relationship remains in a nuclear standoff that maintains the status quo.
- Southeast Asia is expected to remain a force for stability with an economy projected to surpass Japan's by 2030, despite tensions between Japan and China deliberately fueled by Beijing to test U.S. commitment, while Malaysia faces a gap between economic success and political opening, and countries like Venezuela, Ecuador, and Argentina are moving in a negative material direction.
- The U.S. economy is described as currently loafing with 15% disguised unemployment but capable of full capacity recovery if provided a cause, while the withdrawal of resources and quantitative easing is expected to increase disruption risks in fragile states, questioning the legitimacy of performance-based governments that cannot sustain growth.
- General consensus on the obsolescence of war due to economics is expected to be shattered, potentially leading to a new period of bloodshed analogous to 1914 or post-British withdrawal in the Persian Gulf, with Germany supporting a sphere of influence concept viewed as unacceptable by nations like Bulgaria, while the world may shift toward trade and development rather than "muscle flexing."
- Russia is expected to face significant anti-Russian sentiment in Eastern Ukraine, and the U.S. is advised to frame the situation as a violation of post-Cold War nuclear security agreements rather than solely international law, while acknowledging that the global middle class's demand for influence could lead to ideological and populist routes in emerging markets if they choose restructuring.